Carlisle Sunday 28th March

The ‘Go North’ weekend jamboree continues today, with the roadshow moving on to Carlisle after two excellent days at Musselburgh and Kelso, and in keeping with the prize money levels, the ‘Northern Lights Chase Series Finals’ today are well contested.

In one of the supporting races, and at the overnight prices, I was going to suggest backing Sindabella for the 2.55, but her price has collapsed from 7/2 to 2/1, and while I definitely think she can back up her course and distance victory under similar conditions today, 2/1 is just creeping towards the skinny side.

Instead, it is the ‘Northern Lights Middle Distance Chase Series Final’ at 4.05, where I think we can take advantage of a number of factors in favour of a particular horse. Up Helly Aa King is available at 6/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook and BetVictor, who are all offering four places for each-way bets on this 14-runner field.

Having qualified for this race way back in March of last year, I wonder if this has been a plan long in the offing for trainer Nick Alexander. Up Helly Aa King’s record at the track is one that stands up to the finest scrutiny – two wins at around this trip, and a fine fourth (a length off second) behind the progressive chaser Rath An Iuir.

That kind of level is something that many of his opposition today would have no chance of reaching, and Up Helly Aa King proved his class again after a mid-season break, when running well for a long way in a hot Sandown handicap, before a huge run behind Claud And Goldie at Kelso last time. That form looks rock solid, with Vintage Clouds (subsequent Ultima winner) and Duc De Grissay (close third in good race at Kelso yesterday) both finishing well behind Up Helly Aa King.

There is plenty more rain forecast for the Cumbrian track today, which will very much suit Up Helly Aa King. While there is also a strong SW wind all day, which will blow head on down the straight, very much suiting the strong-travelling hold-up types, of which Up Helly Aa King is very much in that bracket.

Everything looks ready for a big run from Up Helly Aa King, and at 6/1 each-way with those bookmakers mentioned above who offer four places, it looks a very solid play.