Cesarewitch Handicap – 2.40 Newmarket – Sat 14th Oct

As I write, declarations are tomorrow morning for the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket at 2.40 on Saturday, and it is a somewhat strange time to be recommending a bet – when the ante-post market is this developed, and also given there will be many more places available for each-way bets once the final field is determined.

But the more I think about it, the more I don’t see any other drawbacks with putting up the fancy as a recommendation at this stage, other than perhaps losing out on a place or two. That may well be outweighed by the fact that I think the price could only potentially go one way, should the horse in question scrape in at the bottom of the 34-runner affair.

Grand Providence needs 4 horses to come out at the declaration stage, to allow the near final piece of what looks a carefully constructed jigsaw to fall into place.

At 10/1 each-way with Betfred for 5 places, (and 11/1 in a few places,) Andrew Balding has done an almost too perfect a job in getting her to the race in peak form, improving leaps and bounds, and with an almost unbelievably light weight to race from.

I say ‘too perfect’ as the 4lb penalty she got for winning the Cesarewitch Trial over the same course and distance has only elevated her to number 38 in the list. She needs to be number 34 or lower once declarations are made at 10am tomorrow morning.

Hayley Turner might have to put up a pound or two overweight on the feather weight of 7st 12lbs allotted to Grand Providence, but that won’t matter a jot.

All season long, Grand Providence has been improving steadily, but on the evidence of her last few starts, it appears as if that improvement is taking on an exponential look to it, and it’s clearly no hindrance that this uptick has coincided with two visits to the Newmarket tracks.

Since winning her handicap debut at Doncaster, Grand Providence has proved she handles bottomless ground at Sandown Park (a bonus should the forecast heavy rain materialise), she has gone close in a valuable fillies’ handicap over an inadequate 1m6f on the July course at Newmarket, before getting going too late over a speedy 2m at Goodwood on decent ground, and finally to her last run in the Cesarewitch Trial 3 weeks ago.

With every run, she has suggested that we are nowhere near the limit of her stamina, as she has simply been galloping on at the line on every occasion, and the most pleasing aspect of her performance last time, was the way she travelled through the race so much stronger than she has ever done.

That development of her cruising speed will stand her in good stead, should she get a run on Saturday, and with her seemingly bottomless stamina, there won’t be many horses able to keep galloping in the manner that she can, at the end of that gruelling 2m2f test.

At 10/1 each-way with Betfred for 5 places, I can see Grand Providence going off a bit shorter if she makes the cut, and so taking that price now has very few downsides. If she didn’t make the field, then you would get your money back, assuming she was declared and balloted out.

Fingers crossed Grand Providence gets the run that trainer Andrew Balding desires, as it would be the penultimate piece in a piece of masterful race campaigning and planning.

The final piece, of course, well that would be for Grand Providence to go and win!