WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Limerick on Thursday 26th May.
|Not That Fuisse||8/18/1||E/W
Matchbook Novices’ Chase
|Place BetPlace Bet|
Date of Tips: 21/10/2020
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:15 21/10/2020) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Much of the weekend’s betting races are tricky to pick through as things stand, with varying degrees of rainfall predicted and a whole host of interesting races featuring horses with multiple entries – particularly at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting on Friday and Saturday.
But I do see one opportunity to take a price about a horse who has only the one entry, is jocked up at this stage, quite a few of the potential opposition have other options, and in a race where there looks almost certainly to be less than 8 runners – we can back it at 8/1 for 3 places each-way.
Not That Fuisse at 8/1 generally for the 2.40 on Saturday, the Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase over 2m 4f, looks to be a very appealing each-way bet.
I’ll start with the reasons for suggesting that it could make sense from a place and price perspective, and then advertise Not That Fuisse’s specific claims. Perhaps not the right order to be explaining a selection, but it makes sense to highlight the former, as it enhances the latter.
There are 10 entries currently, of which Mossy Fen has been declared to run in the 3m novices’ chase on Friday, Fusil Raffles has been declared to run in the 2m novices’ chase on Friday – given they are as short as 2/1 and 9/2 in the ante-post book, they take out a fair chunk of the market.
Paul Nicholls has two entries, but neither are jocked up currently, and I’m not sure he’d run both, and anyhow Grand Sancy and Southfield Stone have never looked ideally suited to the rigours of Cheltenham. The only other horse ahead of Not That Fuisse in the market at this stage is Pileon, who will be making his chase debut for a stable whose runners have generally looked to be needing the run.
It could boil down to a field of five or six, and so taking the 8/1 each-way for 3 places now makes perfect sense about Not That Fuisse. Dan Skelton’s novice chaser had an eye-catching campaign last season, where it looked as if he was being teed up for a nice handicap. The combination of teaching what had previously been a keen horse to settle and jump, combined with some tricky assignments, means that we have by no means seen the best of Not That Fuisse yet.
At this meeting last year, he flew home over 2m to finish second behind Al Dancer, just pipping Getaway Trump for that spot – both of those horses were rated in the 150’s and the fourth home Caius Marcius was rated 147. It was a high-class renewal.
He then went on to contest the valuable Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on very soft ground, as an inexperienced novice. The form book will tell you he finished sixth, but watch the race back and he is the only horse to even remotely get involved from those that raced wide and in the rear. The first five home all either raced prominently, hugged the inside, or a combination of both. Not That Fuisse made a rapid move as the race was developing at the top of the hill, from an unpromising position, and ultimately paid for those exertions. But it was a massive run in the circumstances.
He has had a lovely re-introduction this season, with a ridiculously facile success up at Perth, not putting a foot wrong jumping and travelling through the race like a horse that had come back in top form.
This season could be when the Skelton’s start to reap the reward for their patience with this horse, and at 8/1 I’m willing to wade in with them to find out at 2.40 at Cheltenham on Saturday.