Chepstow/Newmarket/York – Saturday 9th October

As the swathes of money poured in on Friday morning for the Paul Nicholls-trained runners on the Chepstow card, you’d have got a big price about the Ditcheat maestro only coming away with the solitary winner – and even that was a scrappy victory for the 2/13 fav in the opener!

It was a timely reminder that as soon as the game looks simple, events will quickly remind us that nothing in this sport (and indeed life) is pre-ordained. Except perhaps that Willie Mullins will win the Cesarewitch, that might be well be set in stone! More of that later…

Back to Chepstow, and for the one bet on the card I am siding with a Michael Scudamore-trained seasonal debutant in a staying handicap chase. Sound familiar? Never one to gloat, I will casually mention that this method produced a nice winner on Friday with Some Chaos, and clearly Michael Scudamore has targeted this early season period, in order to catch a few others off guard, before they are at full fitness.

It could be the same situation for his Court Master in the Native River Handicap Chase at 2.25 at Chepstow on Saturday, and at a general 11/1 each-way for 4 places, he rates as a good bet to surprise one or two of the more established chasers towards the top of the handicap.

Much like the case for Some Chaos, plenty of Court Master’s opposition will be better on softer ground, and after a run or two, later on in the winter. Given that the last three times that Court Master has reappeared after a break of 100+ days, he has won, now is the time to back him.

Fresh again, after a better-than-it-looked run in the Topham Chase at Aintree, on his favoured sound surface, and without too much opposition for a prominent racing position, it all looks set up for another big run from him at 11/1 each-way generally.

As stated, Willie Mullins will probably win the Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap at 3.35 at Newmarket – he could easily win it with MC Muldoon, he could win it with Burning Victory, and the market is now speaking favourably for Foveros and Micro Manage. Not to mention he also saddles last year’s winner Great White Shark, and seemingly the only one that looks up against it is Whiskey Sour…which of course means he could easily hose up!

If he is going to win it with MC Muldoon, then I’d like to think that Elysian Flame will not be far away at all, and at 18/1 each-way with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook for an astonishing 7 places, Mick and David Easterby’s likeable stayer is the main bet in the race for me.

Since a surprise win at Newbury at odds of 25/1, when clearly not expected to be ready, Elysian Flame has had three massively luckless runs in the Chester Cup, the Ascot Stakes and the big staying handicap at Glorious Goodwood.

Either through poor track position or trouble in-running, this classy sort hasn’t had chance to show the perfect mix of quality and bottomless stamina that he possesses.

The open expanses of the race that famously covers two counties can define Elysian Flame’s burgeoning career, and there is no way he should available at 18/1 each-way for those 7 places, with Paddy Power.

The other one to back in the race is the Donald McCain-trained Goobinator, who has gradually regained confidence and composure since a fall 9 months ago, and at 28/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook also, he could get loose on the far rail from stall 2, and might just be hard to peg back at a big price.

Up at York on Friday, and the gluey ground meant that it was very hard to make up any ground, and on the straight track, this combined with a need to be middle to stands side.

In the valuable Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap at 3.15 on Saturday, it could be worth backing Keith Dalgleish’s talented Volatile Analyst at 16/1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, who could easily go close to making all from stall 7.

Available at 33/1 in places a few hours ago, that was a sensationally incorrect price for a horse whose previous win came at the track on soft ground, and ran very well on ground livelier than ideal in the Ayr Gold Cup last time.

At 16/1, Volatile Analyst is still a juicy enough price to take advantage of a favourable draw and track position on the Knavesmire.