It wasn’t quite the start I was hoping for at Tipperary yesterday with our selection running an honest race in fourth. She acquitted herself quite well and you would like to think that there is still a maiden to be won with her.
Attentions turn to the Curragh this evening for an appetising midweek card that features a strong Group 3 and Listed event. The Orby Stakes at 6.30 gives a good clash between some of the 3YO form in comparison to the older horses.
In fact, the presence of Lough Derg in this race is fascinating. With a lot being built up over the chance of Bolshoi Ballet in the Derby this weekend, it would be remiss to not watch this performance from Lough Derg intently. He has form tied in with the Epsom favourite, with his two trial runs at Leopardstown showing off a high standard of form. However, he meets Patrick Sarsfield here, who is a horse that improved to no end last year from handicap company to Group company throughout the year.
Patrick Sarsfield (10/3) is on seasonal reappearance, and has to give more than a stone to Lough Derg – but that should not stop him running a big race and I would fancy him to put it right up to the favourite.
However, my selection for today comes in the Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes (5.30) with Lustown Baba for Willie McCreery and Billy Lee. This filly was highly progressive at the end of last year over this course and distance. She won a handicap in decisive fashion by seven lengths before following up in a Listed event. She was then well beaten on her first two starts this year before a very eye-catching return to form at Naas last time out when second in the Owenstown Stud Stakes.
She does seem to be quite dependent on softer terrain, so the forecast yielding ground may be on the sharp side over this trip. However, there is forecast rain throughout the day for the Curragh and if that ground disintegrates at all, you will see the price for this filly contract massively.
It is a competitive race and there is no better opposition to Lustown Baba than Sonaiyla, from the ultra shrewd Paddy Twomey yard. This filly has also got a good record in the Curragh and ran a smashing race on reappearance behind Gustavus Weston and Make a Challenge two weeks ago. She has a few pounds in hand on the ratings to our filly, but our filly is a better horse on softer ground – which she will hopefully get by the time this race hits post time. It’s a very good race and one to savour for a Wednesday evening.
She is currently a best-priced 13/2 with Bet365, which will be an each-way selection for me this morning. It’s perhaps a shade tentative to be backing Each Way at this sort of price, but I genuinely can’t see her out of the first four, and as a result – it makes a lot of sense to me. Best of Luck.