WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Valentina Lady||10/1||Each Way
|Socially Distant||12/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 28/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:10 28/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Yesterday was just not to be with the selections from both Galway and Goodwood, as the four advised selections didn’t quite get the job done. There was a mixed bag between them, with Safe Voyage and Coventry running nowhere near their best form, while I was disappointed that Baseman didn’t knuckle down to win his race. As he was my NAP of the day, it hurt that little bit more and I was really very hopeful that Keane’s horse was going to get the job done turning into the straight. However, with the type of week that it is, we need to pick up the baton again and hopefully have a bit more luck this time of asking.
The action has turned to the jumps at Galway, much to my delight and the opening Mares Handicap Hurdle looks a brilliant contest to get started off with. The contest at 4.35 sees 20 runners go to post over just over 2 miles. I will do something slightly unusual for my standards, and I’ll be throwing two darts at the board for this contest. Both of these horses have been on my radar for a while at this stage, and the fact that I’m getting decent prices for both is too good an opportunity to turn down.
The first horse in question is the talented Valentina Lady, who breaks into handicap company off a workable mark of 116. She did it nicely last time out in a maiden down in Wexford, which was perhaps an overdue win over flights – but connections have seemingly found out the way to ride her and she could be very potent back down to this trip. With the fast pace and hold up tactics designed to suit in this sort of contest, it would not surprise me at all to see this horse run very well. At a price of 10/1 with William Hill for 5 places, it’s simply far too big.
Similarly, the profile of Socially Distant looks extremely enticing in a race such as this. Given this mare seems to be Bryan Cooper’s pick of these two very well treated Paul Nolan mares, this horse off a mark of 111 could also be well handicapped. She ran a super race at the Punchestown Festival over 2m4f when finishing third. She returns to 2 miles this time round, where they will be able to make more of her. I’d also be very hopeful of a good run, she is 12/1 with Ladbrokes with 5 places available, which is also an each way shout.
The 6.15 race in the feature, and it would feel rude of me to try and not work out the valuable Galway Plate handicap. Without trying to put punters off completely, it’s not a race that has been too kind to me in the past, and I find this year’s renewal no easier than usual. However, the horse that is quite clearly overpriced in this contest is Mitchouka, for the likeable combination of Gearoid O’Loughlin and Ricky Doyle. Having run some very solid races in defeat last year in the Paddy Power over Christmas and over 2m1f at the Dublin Racing Festival, he found the opening in the big handicap scene when winning at the end of season finale at Leopardstown. He has been raised 8 pounds for that effort, but that was possibly one of the best handicap formlines of the year. LiveLoveLaugh, Mister Fogpatches, Snugsborough Hall, Powersbomb, Uisce Beatha and Rapid Response have all won decent pots since that race. This is some of the best form in this race, and after a pipe-opener over hurdles, this horse has a lively chance. He is 25/1 with SkyBet with 7 places available, which is a mystery to me!
Turning attention to Goodwood now for their second day, and it looks as equally tricky as the first with some really tricky races and on unpredictable ground also. Having looked at the opener at 1.50 – I would be quite keen to take a chance on Siskany in this, who even though is top weight, must have a massive chance in this race. He won 2 starts over 10 furlongs at Sandown on this softer terrain, before a solid race in a good handicap at Royal Ascot. This return to a softer surface should suit, and a mark of 98 should not be beyond him yet. At a price of 4/1, I am going to take a chance on him to get the job done.
Finally, it would be remiss of me not to mention the Sussex Stakes over 1 mile at Goodwood, which is the feature on the card. Due to the ground being unpredictable and perhaps a better field than some were expecting a few days ago, Poetic Flare has drifted out to 5/4. I can’t allow this to happen without me trying to capitalize on this situation. He should be the hot favourite for this race and should take all the beating in this type of contest against these sorts of fillies and fellow colts. That 5/4 is available with William Hill and I have gone and availed of this.