WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Safe Voyage||15/2||Each Way
Date of Tips: 27/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:53 27/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
I don’t know whether it is just me or if other people find it, but there is a lot of different pressure on your shoulders when you enter into big festival weeks within racing. Galway and Goodwood week is no different in this sense, as it is when there are the most eyes on your selections and on how you’re managing to fair. To bang in a 7/1 winner with Citronnade on Day One of the Galway Summer Festival was a massive relief for myself and I can only hope that some of you guys managed to procure the decent prices available. I am not going to rest on the laurels though, and hopefully we can find another one or two like that throughout the week.
My first stop is in the Colm Quinn Mile at Galway at 6.15 – which is one of the trickiest handicaps of the week over a mile. There are plenty of quality horses in this race and there are arguments to be made that plenty of these are well handicapped and worth a chance. If you fancy something in this, I couldn’t put you off. However, I am going to take a massive flyer on one at a big price. I can’t help but feel there is some long term plan for the Group 2 winning horse, Bowerman, who has excellent previous form in these sorts of handicaps. Having won the Irish Lincoln easily last year and winning a Group 2 in Doha this spring, he has gone off the boil completely. However, there was enough promise two starts back to suggest there is still an engine in the tank – and back to a mark of 100, there may be small possibilities of a big run at a big price. At a huge price of 35/1 with Paddy Power with 6 places available, it’s too much of a tempter.
The next race at Galway is a 3 year old handicap for horses over the extended mile. This is always a competitive race but for me this year, it’s hard to get away from Baseman (NAP) for the in-form combination of Dermot Weld and Colin Keane. It would be remiss to not take Weld’s horses very seriously this week, and they started the week well yesterday with plenty of good runs. This horse in particular looks to be improving, and after some good starts in maidens, finally got the job done on the fourth attempt at Limerick last time out. That was an impressive performance, and earmarked potential further improvement down the line. With Galway always in this trainer’s mind, it is of no surprise to see this horse make his handicap debut at this track. Off a mark of 90, there is not much room for budging, but he slaps of a horse who might be seen in pattern company sometime in the future. At a best price of 2/1 with BoyleSports, I am hoping he proves just that.
My final selection on the card from Galway is the 2m handicap, which sees a competitive line up of 20 go to post. We saw them well spread out in the Amatuer Riders race yesterday over this trip, so it will be interesting to see whether the worsening ground effects that again. It will come of no surprise to see me siding with Coventry in this for Paul Nolan and Chris Hayes, who were so cruelly denied at Listowel last time out on his first try over this trip. He was given a very aggressive ride that day, and was just chinned by My Sister Sarah, which looks decent enough form in the book. He has risen considerably in the weights from that effort, but it must be taken into account that he might still be ahead of the handicapper off a mark of 78. I would assume they may well use similar tactics to last time, which will suit around this course – and I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t run well. At a best price of 15/2 with Paddy Power for 5 places, he is another each way bet.
As for Goodwood, I am very wary of getting too involved on a card that is littered with non-runners and with the ground at its most unpredictable. As a result, I have just one selection from the course, which comes in the 3.00 Lennox Stakes. One of the few that will be suited by this weather today is Safe Voyage, who returned to winning ways at Chester last time out. His performances last year were up with some of his best ever, and his close third in the Prix De La Foret on heavy ground was superb. That should indicate this ground will be of no inconvenience to him, and hopefully it might detract and blunt some of his rivals speed. I think at a price of 15/2 with Ladbrokes for the conventional 3 places, he is too big a price to resist backing each way.