WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Suesa||9/2||each-way w/o Battaash & Dragon Symbol (option C)
|Arecibo||5/1||each-way w/o Battaash & Dragon Symbol (option C)
|My Sister Sarah||17/2||each-way
|Wink Of An Eye||3/1||win
Date of Tips: 30/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:28 30/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It’s all going to get a bit complex today I’m afraid – one of those days where I have a (worrying!) amount of fancies in competitive races, and in an effort to chisel out some profit, I’m going to recommend some slightly exotic bets.
They may or may not float your boat, or be available to you through certain firms, but please heed the basic gist of my argument and back them accordingly with however is possible to you. Here goes…
Consistent with the theme for this week so far, I’ll start with feature race at Galway today – Guinness Handicap Hurdle at 5.30 – run over 2m7f, and it is a race that Willie Mullins has, even for his standards, an extraordinary record in. In the last 10 years, he has saddled the winner on 5 occasions, the second 3 times, the third 6 times, the fourth twice and the fifth once. Yes, he has thrown a plethora of darts at this particular board, but unlike my darts skills, not many miss!
Today, many will be seduced by the claims of the recent Queen Alexandra Stakes winner Stratum, who is the mount of Paul Townend. But he has never been the most natural over hurdles, and is passed over in favour of two of his mares in the race.
Three of his winners in the last 10 years have been of the fairer sex, and it is worth backing Jazzaway at 13/2 each-way with SkyBet and also My Sister Sarah at 17/2 each-way with SkyBet.
SkyBet are offering a brilliant 7 places on the race, and in Jazzaway, we have a horse who has already won handicaps and could easily improve a massive chunk for the step up in trip, being a sister to Briar Hill, amongst other strong stayers.
While My Sister Sarah was runner-up in the race last year to stablemate Great White Shark, and had a good run in the big amateur riders race here on Monday night, when the slow pace wouldn’t have brought her stamina fully into play.
I’m a sucker for horses reappearing at the Festival, having run well earlier in the week, as you may know, and in the Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle at 4.30, Tony Martin’s Nibiru is worth an each-way bet at 17/2 with SkyBet, who are again offering extra places with 6 this time.
On account of a decent maiden and novice hurdle campaign two seasons ago, Nibiru found himself on a lofty mark and in handicaps that were too deep for him. However, he has dropped markedly in the weights since, and re-found some good form on the all-weather in the winter. Only to improve again at Galway on Monday in the first-time cheekpieces, which are retained here for his re-introduction to hurdles.
Day four of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, and it is the turn of the speedsters to take centre stage at 3.35 – King George Qatar Stakes, as Battaash bids for a remarkable fifth win in this race. It may be his toughest task in this race to date however, with the up-and-comer Dragon Symbol emerging on to the scene.
It is possible that slightly softer than ideal ground and a fierce headwind are going to make it very hard for Charlie Hills’ superstar. That said, I fully respect his chances, and those too of Dragon Symbol, who could be suited by dropping back to 5f.
But I do think that both Suesa and Arecibo will outrun their respective prices, and wouldn’t put anyone off backing them both each-way for extra places at 12/1 and 16/1 best price.
However, perhaps the best way to go would be to make use of the markets without the likely favourite(s), and Paddy Power offer a market without both Battaash and Dragon Symbol. It is ‘option C’ on their ‘Betting Without’ tab on the website or app.
Suesa is 9/2 here and Arecibo is 5/1, and they are both for 3 places each-way, so in effect, if Suesa and Arecibo came 4th and 5th, if Battaash and Dragon Symbol were ahead of them, then we would still get our money back just about. I think this is the best way to try and chisel some profit from the race.
Suesa did well in the Commonwealth Cup on her first start on these shores, when disadvantaged by racing with no cover on the wrong part of the track, and it is notable that Mooniesta and Happy Romance, (who were closely matched with Suesa on the same part of the track,) have won a Group 2 and a Group 3 respectively since then.
While Arecibo is sure to appreciate the likely strong pace, and in the hope that the fierce headwind allows the pace to collapse, he has more than enough going for him to fly through late on.
The closing race on the card is the TDN Australia Handicap at 5.20, and features one of the handicap improvers of the season, Wink Of An Eye, who still has any amount of progress left in him. At 3/1 with William Hill, he is a rare win only bet for me.