WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Ivy Avenue||9/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 07/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:10 07/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
I’m returning back to Galway this afternoon looking for a little bit more joy than the two selections yesterday provided. It’s a flat card with some interesting races and I’m trying to pick apart the card for some selections, and unlike recent times – I have actually a fair few choices to go to war with today. Hoepfully we can get on the winning thread for this month and start putting some money in the bank going forward to the bigger meetings this weekend and onwards.
The 5.30 is a 7 furlong maiden and looks like another race where it would be more than prudent siding with the top of the market than trying to deny the obvious. The form pick in this race is the Mick O’Callaghan trained, Past Time, who has been steadily progressive in three starts to date. This filly ran a solid race over course and distance at the Festival before bettering that effort with a second last time out. She looked slightly ungainly under pressure that day, but she should have learned from that experience and put it to good use in this contest, where she is receiving weight from some of her main market rivals. A price of 5/2 is still more than fair to back, and I’m hoping that she can get off the mark at the second time of asking.
The 7.00 race is the first handicap of the evening that I’m tackling, with the 1m4f apprentice handicap looking one of the most tricky races on the card to solve. I have decided to side with the experienced and generally consistent, Ivy Avenue, who will be well suited by the stiff finish here at Galway, as she often runs on well at the finish. The achilles heel of Ivy Avenue has always been her slowness out of the stalls, and she is often on the back foot in races before they have began in earnest. However, Luke McAteer has a good relationship with her and won on her at Cork off a similar mark in April. She is weighted to compete in this sort of contest, and at a price of 9/1 with Paddy Power, who are offering 5 places, I’ll be backing her each way.
Finally, the 7.30 race is a 1m4f maiden. I am going to take a chance on the Joseph O’Brien trained barrier trail winner in this race, HappywifeHappyLife – who has taken a route that this trainer likes to use with his new recruits. I am very keen on the angle of barrier trial runners in Ireland and this filly did it nicely on her unofficial debut, coming out on top in good fashion. She now has to prove that worth on the track, but her task has been made a lot easier by the scratching of Shewearsitwell – who has been a non-runner in recent minutes. That has left the mark scrambling for a rethink and has made my selection a potentially non each-way bet, which is a shame given I wanted to take on the likely favourite in the first place. Paddy Power and Betfair have now gone best price on this filly, who is 4/1 in places and is a win bet as a result.