WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Roscommon on Monday 23rd May.
|Place BetPlace Bet|
|Sopran Thor||7/17/1||Each Way - 4 Places
|Place BetPlace Bet|
Date of Tips: 21/01/2022
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:27 21/01/2022) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It has been a feature of the month so far that we have been very quiet during the week before finding some form at the weekends to keep us floating at water level. I am hoping that can continue to be the case and that we can get some momentum heading back into the Irish action from Navan and Thurles this weekend. The Lingfield Winter Million meeting starts today and there are some very well contested races to get stuck into. I have two selections from the card, which despite its competitive edge – doesn’t scream out as many betting opportunities in my book.
In fact, I am waiting till the 3.00 race to have my first bet on the card – which is in the novice chase over just short of 3 miles. This looks a fascinating race and it’s going for a very good pot of over 23,000 to the winner – so you can rest assured that plenty of connections will be seeking to get their horse in front on this occasion. I am going to be siding with the top rated in this contest and also a course and distance winner in Fantastikas for the Twiston-Davies combination. This is a good horse who might be lining up for some big field handicaps come the end of the season, but this looks like a worthwhile pot to try and procure along the way – and it certainly looks winnable.
Having been a good hurdler last year, which resulted in a second at Musselburgh on his final start, this horse has developed into a very useful novice chaser this season and his formlines look relatively robust for a contest such as this. He won over C&D on his first chase when winning easily by 7 lengths and making a mockery of his handicap mark of 128. Since then, he has had to compete in much steeper races and has come up short with a second behind Threeunderthrufive at Doncaster and third behind L’Homme Presse over an inadequate trip at Cheltenham last time out on New Year’s Day. Both those horses are single figure prices for their respective Festival engagements in March and he has jumped impeccably on both occasions. This is a much calmer race and he should be able to take advantage. The ultra heavy ground is a question mark for most horses running today – but he should be able to handle it and I’m hopeful of a big run. He is 10/3 with William Hill, which seems a more than fair price.
The other selection on the card comes in the 4.08 race – which is a handicap chase on this occasion and over 2m4f. This is a 0-135 race and again they are running for a pot in excess of 10,000 – so it is no surprise to see this race being well supported by the trainers. It is a shame that we are not going to see The Edgar Wallace line up in this race, as I think he is an excellent horse in his own right and certainly one to keep the right side of when he does run next time out.
However, with the top weight out of the race, I am thinking that the return to Lingfield will bring out the best in Sopran Thor, with his trainer Gary Moore having a brilliant strike rate at this venue. Having been a frustrating hurdler last season, Sopran Thor finally opened his account in his last run of last season when winning at Warwick and he backed that up with a winning chase debut over this C&D at the start of the season on soft ground. He was hiked up seven pounds for that effort and his subsequent performances have yielded him to go up another four pounds in the process. The handicapper has finally cut this horse some slack and he is back down to a mark of 127, and with Niall Houlihan’s important claim of three pounds – he could be handicapped to run well.
Unlike plenty of other horses on the card, Sopran Thor is likely to enjoy conditions and horses can develop into specialists around this track, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this horse return to some of the form he showed at the start of the season. If his jumping holds up, he should run very well. At a price of 7/1 with SkyBet, who are offering 4 places – he should be backed each way.