Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase – Cheltenham – Friday 17th November

When an ante-post market starts moving, I’m always loathe to take under whatever the top price was when first assessing the potential bet. But then, there are some occasions where you have to revert to what you feel the market should be if you were visiting the race for the first time, and if the prices available are still higher than what you feel they should be, then there’s still scope for value, and recommending a bet.

The race that has me mulling this over is Friday’s Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase at 1.45 at Cheltenham, run over 2m, and currently the ante-post market has at the head of it three horses who would be making their seasonal debuts should they line up – Calico, No Risk Des Flos and Richmond Lake. When you consider that Calico would prefer better ground that it will likely be (10mm+ forecast on Thursday), while No Risk Des Flos and Richmond Lake might be rusty and both probably want further anyhow, then suddenly the race looks ripe for something at a bigger price.

Next in is Do Your Job, who ran well for a long way in the Old Roan on reappearance and debut for a new yard, but he’s been beset with more than his fair share of training issues and Cheltenham wouldn’t an obviously suitable track for him.

So, it’s to the main ante-post selection now, in the shape of the 6/1 each-way with Bet365 about Joe Tizzard’s Triple Trade, who will be 100% fit and ready after an excellent seasonal reappearance run over the same course and distance, in what was a better race than this Friday’s event will be.

Potential Champion Chase flyer Haddex Des Obeaux set a blistering tempo three weeks ago, which only the classy winner Dancing On My Own and last season’s Turners Novices’ Chase runner-up Notlongtilmay wanted any part of.

Haddex Des Obeaux was rated 146, and the other pair 151 and 152, and so in keeping tabs on them before running on stoutly up the hill, the 129 (now 130) rated Triple Trade fared with real credit.

When you consider in Friday’s race, the potential pacesetters are rated no higher than 140, it will be a gallop at which Triple Trade will be able to sit closer to, and on ground he handles, perhaps even enjoys more, that will bring his requisite stamina more into play, he rates as an excellent betting proposition at 6/1 each-way now with Bet365. I’d have him as a clear ante-post favourite, so missing the 8/1 available yesterday, while disappointing, is not catastrophic.

Of the remainder in the market, Guy has never been a strong finisher, Special Rate isn’t qualified, Ballybreeze would be interesting but has an alternative entry on the card, and Gold Des Bois, Coastguard Station and Prince Escalus would all prefer better ground. Madara would be of some interest as he was still travelling ok in the same race as Triple Trade three weeks ago before unseating 3 out, but is very hard to get a handle on his form generally.