WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an each-way selection for the 2.15 at Naas on Sunday 17th October.
|Super Citizen||14/1||Each Way - 5 Places
|Allduckornodinner||16/1||Each Way - 5 Places
Date of Tips: 12/10/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:27 12/10/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Been a few days since the last daily selections piece as I sampled some live racing for the first time in 18 months with a trip over Chepstow last weekend. It got the juices flowing for what should be a brilliant couple of months of National Hunt action. It is getting to the time of the year where more and more good horses are coming out to run, and it will be interesting to see how they do – especially if changing disciplines.
Racing at Punchestown sees a horse completely fit the above bill, in the opening beginners chase at 1.15. Ballyadam, who was the horse on everyone’s lips at the start of the last year – makes his debut over fences with more than a bit to prove after what I thought was a below finish to the season. As much as I do like seeing good horses win, I would be willing to take this horse on at the shorter prices. He was an untidy jumper of a hurdle and comes up against a good rival in this. That horse is Cape Gentleman, who makes the transition to fences after a rock solid third in the Galway Hurdle. He also won a Grade 2 over hurdles last year as a novice and although this trip might be a bit sharp, could well give Ballyadam something to think about. At a best price of 9/5 with Paddy Power, I’m backing the upset.
The 1.45 race is an equally enthralling handicap chase over 3m for qualified riders. These races can often spring a surprise, so I have delved down deep into the market to try and find some likely chances. I have stumbled upon two who I think may well be suited the race conditions. Super Citizen is the first of them, for the father/daughter pairing of Eugene and Maxine O’Sullivan. This horse has gone off the boil since a win at Leopardstown back in March, but coincidently he now returns to that exact same mark for today’s race. His run at Listowel the last time looked like he might be returning to some sort of form, and he could be in a nice favourbale position to run well in his ideal conditions. At a best price of 14/1 with Paddy Power, who offer 5 places, he is an each way bet.
Alongside him, I will be playing Allduckornodinner – who looks majorly like he has been lined out for a repeat bid in this race, having won the race back in 2019 under the care of Gavin Cromwell. Now with Dermot McLoughlin, he has been lightly raced since then, but his two recent spins over hurdles have not been without promise under the young rider, Emma Sweeney. However, most notably today – the booking of Jody Townend looks an aggressive move, and one that might indicate that this is the day they hope this horse can run well. Off a decent mark, which is two pounds lower than when winning this race, he should run well. He is 16/1 with Paddy Power, and is also an each way bet.
The final selection for today comes in the last race on the card, the 4.40 bumper over the extended two miles. It may seem like a risky option to be taking on two Gordon Elliot horses in this race, but I am drawn to Lizlucky – for Patrick Foley, who arguably brings the best form to the party. Having ran respectably in two good bumpers at Thurles and Punchestown, she upgraded that form with a second at Cork at a wild price. She is more than likely not favourite today because people will be waiting to see whether she can back it up. However, she had the progressive San Salvador in behind that day, who was won twice since, so the form looks robust. At a best price of 4/1 with Bet365, I’ll be backing her to win.