WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Believe in Science||15/2||Each Way - 4 Places
Date of Tips: 14/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:09 14/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Without daring to tempt fate on the matter, it is good to see a small change in momentum with the selections on this page, as after a dry run for a few days – we have had back to back with decent priced winners. Push The Tempo was given a terrific ride from Tom O’Brien, when swooping late on the run-in to get the better of two horses that had stolen a march. Now comes the most troublesome part, trying to keep that run going and getting into a good rhythm for the remainder of the month of September.
There is rare flat action from Punchestown this afternoon, and it hosts a very intriguing eight race card on this occasion. There is a nice mix between some maidens, handicaps and a fascinating feature contest. Starting off with the opening race on the card, which is one of those intriguing maidens over 7 furlongs at 1.30 for 2 year olds. Plenty of these fillies are either coming into this race as unraced or having only had the one start under rules.
With that in mind, it may be more prudent to side with some proven form on this occasion – and any of these new recruits will have to go a bit to beat Radiyka, who has posted two very solid efforts in maidens so far, coming second in both of them. In doing so, she has registered RPRs in the 80s and sets a very fair standard to aim at in a race such as this. Oisin Orr takes the ride, as he did on this filly’s first start, so he should have a gauge for what quality he has underneath the bonnet. At a standout price of 3/1 with Bet365, I think she is a more than fair price.
The next race on the card is the 2.00, which is a 1m maiden for 2YOs again. This looks like another interesting race with horses with form being pitched up against some regally bred sorts. It is hard to back any of Aidan O’Brien’s horses at the moment with any degree of confidence given the way they are running, and as a result I will be swerving those two horses that are in the first three of the betting. As a punter, I could be accused of being too forgiving at times, but sometimes it rewards me with patience.
The horse in this context that needs to be forgiven is Believe in Science for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning. This colt has ran the twice, with a very promising effort on debut being backed up by a terrible effort at the Curragh last time out. That run could potentially be excused, as the soft ground wouldn’t have been to the favour of this horse. Back on better ground today in what looks like an open maiden, he could be a different proposition and if he was to return to the form of his debut, he would have a massive chance in this race. At a price of 15/2 with SkyBet, who are generously offering 4 places in this maiden, I think he has a very strong chance and I will be backing each way.
The 3.03 race at Punchestown will be my last selection for the afternoon and this feature over 1m1f looks a fascinating contest. This race causes many dilemmas for myself as it sees two of my more favoured horses going against each other in what looks like a straight shoot. Those who have followed the page for a number of months will know that I am very keen on Sherkin Island, and was delighted with his effort at Galway to win a maiden at the end of the Festival. Dance Jupiter is a horse that I think is quality and will definitely be able to win races off a mark of 95.
Since starting to write this article this morning, I have changed my mind on this race a few times, but with the ideology that Dance Jupiter may need the run and arguably wants softer ground – I will be siding with Sherkin Island at the top of the market. He looks like the type to continue improving with racing and I will be sticking by his side until he gives me a reason to not back him. At a best price of 7/4 with Paddy Power, I hope I have made the right decision.