Horse Racing

Roscommon Tuesday 11th May

Tuesday 11th May 14:30

WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and betting tips for the 14.30 at Roscommon on Tuesday 11th May

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Bookie Selection Best Odds Market Bet
Comfort Line 14/1 E/W
Roscommon 14.30
Place Bet

Date of Tips: 11/05/2021

Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:17 11/05/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.

Plenty to look forward to with York’s Dante meeting starting tomorrow, and also the prospect of the general public infusing racecourses with life and atmosphere again next week. It’s been a long haul, but racecourses will hopefully soon be the buzz of activity and merriment that they once were, and also the place where bookmakers and punters can re-engage with the daily skirmishes on course, the way they once were commonplace.

Plenty of potential betting skirmishes today, as I fancy a few at big prices. It could easily end in three no shows, but there is also potential for maybe some each-way multiples to yield some profit. The main daily selection comes from the outpost of Roscommon, right in the heart of Ireland, and more specifically in the Knockcroghery Handicap at 2.30 over 7½ furlongs.

The other two that I think can run well at big prices come later this evening, in the shape of Tamkeen at a general 18/1 in the Ayr 6.30 and Autumn Mist at a best priced 12/1 in the Killarney 6.40.

However, I’d be pretty confident of a bold showing from Comfort Line in the Roscommon 2.30, and at 14/1 each-way with BetVictor, for four places, he rates as the bet of the day. The price of Comfort Line is a classic case of the market simply placing too much emphasis on the bare form of recent runs, and not taking into account the whole story.

Comfort Line and the re-opposing Star Of Cashel were third and fourth in the Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh in March, and yet somehow just under two months later, they are 14/1 and a skinny 5/2 for this 7½f handicap, despite Comfort Line having much the better draw to gain a valuable prominent pitch around a tight track that very much inconveniences horses that get behind.

From stall 12, Star Of Cashel is going to have break like a bullet from a gun, and Comfort Line in stall 6 will surely have an advantage over his old rival, on that front.

The reason Comfort Line is 14/1 I presume, is due to the two runs he has had since the Irish Lincolnshire, but even the most unforgiving of form judges would be hard pushed to tar him with how those races have unfolded. Firstly, he slipped up at Cork when in contention, and then he ran a mighty race in a Group 3, where he was ultimately just outclassed in the closing stages, on ground way too lively for him.

How Comfort Line is 14/1, when he has everything in his favour with regard to ground, distance, track, draw and against inferior rivals given he is top weight in an uncompetitive handicap, is beyond me. Hence, I just have to recommend a decent each-way bet at 14/1 with BetVictor.

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