WhichBookie racing analyst Andrew Blair White provides a preview and betting tips for races at Tipperary today.
Date of Tips: 09/04/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (08:03 09/04/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
There a few eye-watering facts, trends or well-held notions which today’s daily selection is going to have to overcome in order to land the spoils – Rann Of Kutch at 11/1 each-way with 888Sport, BetVictor or Bet365 in the Mares’ Handicap Chase at Sedgefield at 4.55.
Let’s get the negatives out of the way first – her trainer Mike Sowersby hasn’t trained a winner since June 2019, and has a record of 0-50 this current jumps campaign. While Rann Of Kutch is set to run from a not insignificant 12lbs out of the handicap, which means her rating of 70 is too low for her to be in the generally accepted weight range, given the top weight in the race has a rating of 108.
Jockey Aaron Anderson’s lowest riding weight in the last 12 months has been 9st 7lbs, and if Rann Of Kutch was allowed to run off her official mark, then Anderson plus his saddle and cloth would have to weigh no more than 8 stone 9lbs, with his 7b claim taken into account. Precisely the reason why minimum weights are utilised, as that clearly isn’t feasible!
Supporting horses from out of the weights is often a big no-no with punters, but there are some cases where it can actually give us a bit of value, as going against the grain is always the best way of making this game pay.
Such is the weak nature of this race today at Sedgefield at 4.55, that Mike Sowersby has clearly sensed an opportunity for his mare, who comes into it in good form having finished a creditable fourth on her last two outings. A few pounds here or there is significantly less important than form and fitness in a race like this.
Rann Of Kutch has both form and fitness on her side, and her Newcastle fourth 10 days ago was by far the best piece of recert form, and there is a strong possibility that she will improve markedly for the step up in trip today.
Given that favourite Agent Valdez unseated when we last saw her, and has been beaten comprehensively in two handicaps since winning off a lower mark, she is vulnerable despite the assistance of title-chasing Brian Hughes in the saddle.
Sophie Olivia and Liffeydale Dreamer are both re-appearing after a break and while both have had wind operations in the interim, the aforementioned might need it softer and Liffeydale Dreamer has yet to convince that fences bring out the best in her.
The other horse in the race, Louloumills, hails from a stable that rarely produce them to win off the back of a prolonged break.
All of this points, strongly in my eye, to the 11/1 each-way about Rann Of Kutch being extremely appealing, and in the process would give Mike Sowersby a much needed winner. Given it is at a track that he has the most winners at of any in the country, today could be the day.