1.50 Newbury - Friday
Horse Racing analyst Will Smith has had a good look at all this weekend's ante-post markets, and provides a 7/1 EW selection in the Grade 2 novices' chase at Newbury on Friday.
Date of Tips: 25/03/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:14 25/03/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Taking on any horse trained by Tristan Davidson at the moment, is pretty close to a futile exercise. Of his last 5 runners, 4 have won, and the other was a 66/1 shot. The stable run a newcomer to their yard in the closing race at Sedgefield at 5.25 today, in the shape of Keep The River.
Keep The River hasn’t won since October 2018. But on the flip side of that, is the fact that she has dropped a long way in the handicap in the intervening period, and slots nicely into a winnable 0-100 handicap from her now 24lb lower than peak rating off 90.
Of Davidson’s recent four winners, it is worth noting that two of them were doing so on at least their fourth start of the season, and the other two (which were newish acquisitions to the yard) were doing so on their second start for the stable. So, for all that Keep The River will surely win off her rating for the in-form outfit, now might be the time to take her own.
Given that Sky Bet are offering four places for each-way bets on the 12-runner race, and the favourite takes out a fair chunk of it, there is potential for something to stand out as a nice each-way bet.
Step forward the lightly raced, progressive and long-distance southern raider Just A Sip, who is 5/1 with Sky Bet, and surely won’t be out of the frame at the very least.
Warren Greatrex’s mare makes the trek from Lambourn as the stable’s only runner on the card, and one of only two rides for Gavin Sheehan, who gets the leg up for the first time on her. Just A Sip was a notable second on her second handicap start at Plumpton 24 days ago, and given that she was the only horse to give chase to the well-treated, gambled-on winner that day, she has a lovely profile to improve on what she did there.
Given her experience of decent ground at Plumpton, (a track which, given the undulations and downhill sections is not dissimilar to Sedgefield,) Just A Sip can certainly trouble the favourite, and must be supported each-way at 5/1 with Sky Bet for the Sedgefield 5.25.