WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|King of the Castle||66/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 08/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (13:03 08/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
Ante-Post betting is perhaps one of the hardest parts of the betting game to get a full grasp on. So far for WhichBookie, my ante-post selections have been undistinguished and I will be hoping for a change of fortune for them as we begin to look forward to the jumps. However, some of these back end flat races look like tasty affairs, and the St Leger this weekend looks like a nice type of race to get involved with in a betting capacity.
The favourite, and for good reason, is the impressive Hurricane Lane. He is a horse that I love and there is a part of me that feels loathed to take him on, but at the skimpy prices that he is operating around – one has to try and look elsewhere. He quite clearly brings the best form to the table and also holds plenty of these on bare form and ratings, so it is his race to lose. However, at 4/6 – you would be better off trying to find each way alternatives that might get into the shake-up rather than sharking in at small prices.
The first horse I quite like in this race is Interpretation, who looks a lively outsider in this race given his progressive profile in recent months. He has been scaling his way up the ladder since his maiden win and has taken out a rated race and a Listed race in his last two starts. The bare form alone leaves him with plenty to find, but that is the reason why one can procure a decent each-way price about him. As much as he does have to prove he is good enough for this level, he also has nothing to suggest that he couldn’t stop improving and take the rise in class in stride. He is currently 20/1 generally, which I think is a good each-way price, especially given that this is his only entry of the weekend and is a very likely runner. He could be a very lively outsider in this race and I would quite like whoever is on board to make plenty of use of this horse, and see whether he can get some of these in trouble in behind him.
The more speculative poke of the two comes on the outsider of the field, King of the Castle. I have had it in my head for a long time now that this horse could spring up and run a big race at a big price somewhere, and that theory could well be tested this weekend. One has to be wary of the fact that he is entered in a few races at the Curragh also, but at a massive price – it seems like a risk that one could take without fearing the worst. On the ratings, this horse is 24 pounds short of Hurricane Lane, which is a fair reflection of their respective achievements, but I’m convinced we haven’t seen the best of this horse and his run at York last time out was miraculous given how slowly he started. Prior to that, he had looked in desperate need of a huge step up in trip and is not far off the Mediterranean (generally 16s for this race) on maiden form. At a wild price of 66/1 with William Hill, I am hoping that he gets declared and can put my theory to the test. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.