WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an each-way selection for the 2.15 at Naas on Sunday 17th October.
|Lavender’s Blue||14/1||Ante Post
Newmarket 14.55 - Saturday 2nd October
Date of Tips: 29/09/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (11:25 29/09/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
After a dalliance into the ante-post market for the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe, I am now looking a little closer to home with the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket over 1 mile for Fillies and Mares. This looks a wide open renewal and given the 1m mares division has been strong this year, I would assume this will be a typically competitive race with plenty of horses in with chances.
The favourite for this race is Snow Lantern, and you can see why given the fact that she is returning to fillies and mares company on this occasion and the last time she was in this sort of race, she won the Falmouth in stunning fashion. Since then, she has run more than respectable races in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and the Moulin in France, lately with the race not being run to suit with slow fractions being implemented. She should be more at home in a bigger field and with more pace to aim at. However, these fillies have been beating each other throughout the year and it is hard to gauge who is the best from Snow Lantern, Mother Earth and Alcohol Free. Instead of siding with those fillies at the top of the market, I have delved deeper and have picked a 14/1 shot with hopefully a decent chance.
The filly on my mind is Lavender’s Blue, who posted not only a season best, but a career best last time out at Goodwood when getting there in the nick of time to win the Celebration Mile. While some may have questioned the form of that race at the time, it has been very well backed up with the second and third, Benbalt and Pogo, filling out the first two positions in the Joel Stakes last week at Newmarket. That makes the form from Goodwood now look robust and I’m excited to see whether Lavender’s Blue can continue to progress after that breakthrough win at Group 2 level.
Throughout the rest of the year, she does have it to find with some of these fillies in the line-up, while finishing eight in the Falmouth was respectable, she will need to improve the guts of six lengths to be in with a chance in this race. However, if repeating that Goodwood run, which was definitely a good five/six pounds better than the Falmouth effort, she might well have the improvement left in the tank to challenge those at the top of the market. Rob Hornby, who rode her for the first time at Goodwood last time out, retains the ride and will be looking to continue that 100% record.
Lavender’s Blue has always appreciated good ground, which she should encounter this weekend with the weather forecast set fair and the likely decent pace in this race will also play into her strengths as she often comes from off the pace. Given her only other entry at this stage is for a 7-furlong race the following week, I think it is fair to think that Lavender’s Blue will be in this line-up and ready to do herself justice for a smaller trainer in Amanda Perrett. At a price of 14/1 generally, she should be backed each way.