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|Danny Kirwan||8/18/1||Ante Post
E/W 4 places 1/4
Swinley Handicap Chase - 2.25 Ascot - Sat 18 Feb
|Place BetPlace Bet|
Date of Tips: 15/02/2023
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (09:56 15/02/2023) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
When assessing whether an ante-post recommendation sees the light of the day, one of the main aspects is to ensure availability, reliability and robustness of price. There is no point in putting something up when it is only that price with one bookmaker, who are likely to cut that selection’s price quickly.
This week’s ante-post bet of the week is right on the cusp of what I would deem acceptable, but I do want to get it out there, in the hope that enough availability abounds.
At last count on Oddschecker, 9 bookmakers (admittedly some of the smaller operators) have the race in question priced up, and the price/place terms I would like is available with 6 of them. So, it gets the go ahead!
The race in question is the LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot at 2.25 on Saturday, and despite there being 21 initial entries, I can genuinely see the final field of declarations being less than 10, as many acceptors have alternative entries or will not be risked on what will be pretty fast ground for the time of year.
When seeing the initial entries, there was one horse that stood out to me, and upon seeing that Harry Cobden has been pencilled in for the ride, the 8/1 each-way for 4 places about Danny Kirwan with Unibet, Boylesports, BetUK, Betway and SkyBet amongst others, is definitely worth seeking out.
There are four factors that, on the basis of his form and my own intuition, have a positive effect on the performance level of Danny Kirwan. Decent ground, right-handed track, flat galloping (or at least not undulating) track, and being fresh.
Well, all four beneficial angles are confirmed for Saturday’s assignment, and indeed, the last time that was the case was on his last racecourse appearance, which came here at Ascot at the end of October.
On that occasion, he was lined up out wide, given room to find his rhythm by Cobden, gradually inch into the race, and in the end, only went down to a career best run from Our Power.
At 8/1 each-way with those aforementioned operators for 4 places, I can genuinely see Danny Kirwan being nearer the 3/1 or 7/2 mark come the day, and with perhaps only a smallish number of horses to take on. Certainly, a smaller field and the ability to find his own tempo, (which is significantly quicker than many will be able to find on decent ground,) are important factors.
A brief look at those horses currently quoted at 10/1 or shorter in places reveals participation and/or conditions suitability doubt about all – Revels Hill, Fortescue, Laskalin, Ashtown Lad, Iwilldoit, Farinet, Sporting John and Phoenix Way would all want notably softer ground that it will be on Saturday. Plus, many of these have other entries either this weekend or next.
Danny Kirwan does also have the option of the valuable Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton Park next weekend, and was initially mooted as the target for Danny Kirwan after his last run at Ascot.
As ever, Paul Nicholls is on the ball and willing to be flexible to suit his horses and his owners, and the prize of £56k for winning the LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase at 2.25 at Ascot on Saturday is not to be sniffed at.
10/1 with Bet365 for 3 places is also available, and if that is an option open to you, I certainly wouldn’t put you off taking that, as previously mentioned, it could easily be a smallish field come Saturday – and 10/1 for 3 places as opposed to 8/1 for 4 places might end up being a choice that it would be trifling to differentiate between.