WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Shean Glory||12/1||Each Way
|John Adams||5/1||Each Way
|Amhran Na Bhfian||9/1||Each Way
Date of Tips: 13/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:42 13/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
With the weekend well and truly on the horizon, it is a great chance to sit down and watch some quality racing. This evening, on a Friday night, I will look forward to watching both The Curragh and Tramore for a mix and match of good flat and jumps action – and the hope is to maybe find a winner or two in the process. The three selections from yesterday ran decently, with a short priced winner and a 25/1 third being yielded, so all in all it’s been a positive week and one to hopefully build upon. Tramore is on day two of their four day festival, and I will be tucking into the jumps action from this venue first.
The first race I will be tackling is the 6.45, which is an ultra competitive mares handicap hurdle over the minimum distance of 2 miles for horses rated from 80-109. These can be tough races to find a solution to and this looks no different. Miss Arcoll tops the betting and for good reason as well, after a stylish win in a similar contest at Cork a few weeks ago. That was over a longer trip and she has been raised a few pounds from the assessor for that effort, so for my money, there is enough to be taking her on at a price of 9/4.
Instead, I am going to take a wild swing at one at a huge prize in this, and back that a return to hurdles may work the oracle for Ballydunblaze, for the combination of Mags Mullins and Daniel Holden. This is a risky option but this mare has ability and is a previous two time winner when trained by Gordon Elliot. Those two wins came over 2m in the summer months on good ground, so these are optimum conditions that she encounters today. She has been poor since joining this team but it looks like fences are not her thing whatsoever, and she has failed to convince. Back to hurdles, where the handicapper has given her a chance off 95, she could be anything. At a price of 33/1 with William Hill, who are importantly offering 4 places, I’m not prepared to die wondering, and I’ll be backing her each way.
The next race on the card is the 7.15, which is a maiden hurdle. This doesn’t look like one of the great races but I’ll be taking a chance on Shean Glory in this, who has always shaped like she could perform better than her form figures would suggest. She went into mine, and plenty of others’ trackers after an eye-catching run in fourth at Thurles during the winter, but she has failed to really build on that, and there has been plenty of chopping and changing with her trip and tactics employed. She needs to be ridden very cold so it seems and try to get running through horses. If things were to fall right, she would have a big chance in this, and at a best price of 12/1 with 3 places available on Bet365, I’ll take a chance each way.
The final selection from Tramore is in the 7.45 and it sees the return of one of my old flames, John Adams, who will be looking to supply another win for WhichBookie followers after supplying the goods at Sligo last week. He has been raised 3 pounds for that effort, which I don’t think is insurmountable, but one would have to be slightly wary about the drop down in distance, as all this horse does is stay. This being said, Toni Quail has a brilliant relationship with this horse and gets a brilliant tune out of him, so further progress is certainly not beyond the bounds. He is currently a best price of 5/1 with Paddy Power, which I’ll be taking the cautious approach of backing each way.
I am venturing to the Curragh for one selection this evening and it comes in the St Leger Trial at 7.00 over 1m6f. I am going to take a chance on the quirky but talented customer, Amhran Na Bhfian, who is very hard to assess given the majority of his recent form. After bombing out at Leopardstown earlier this year, he went on to tear a field over C&D apart last month from the front, showing an unrelenting attitude. He then went to the Goodwood Cup where he never featured, but that was on soft ground and I think he needs to be out in front to have any chance. If getting into that rhythm again, he might be hard to catch and at a price of 9/1 with all bookmakers for 3 places, he is an each way bet.