WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Armory / Third Kingdom||8.63/1||Win Double
3.15 York & 3.20 Newcastle
Date of Tips: 24/07/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (10:44 24/07/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
It was pleasing to get back on the scoreboard for the first time in a few days at Uttoxeter with a winner in the Novices Chase with Courtandbould. I must say that you won’t say many better pieces of race riding than Paddy Brennan in that contest, sided alongside a very tough horse who responded to every urging. Moving forward to today, and after a careful examination of all the flat cards today – there did not look like there was much at bigger prices to get stuck into. Therefore, I have decided to play a few at slightly shorter prices, who I genuinely think have a good chance at getting the job done.
The main bet for myself today comes from an unusual source, as I’m heading off to Newcastle for my best bet. It comes in the 3.20 contest, which is a good standard 0-90 handicap over the straight mile. I simply can’t see past Third Kingdom, who I think has it all in his favour to get his second win of his career over the line with a win in this. Having posted some highly credible efforts in his 2YO career, he went on to break his maiden tag over the straight 7 furlongs on this course by an impressive 5 lengths. His efforts this year haven’t quite been up to my expectations.
Third Kingdom didn’t see him to get home on his seasonal reappearance when tackling soft ground at Doncaster. That day, he travelled into the race sweetly before fading rapidly to finish second from last in a competitive contest. He was much better at Sandown last time out, when finishing strongly back over 7 furlongs to finish a close up third after being well backed. That shaped like a return to 1 mile on more suitable conditions would be ideal for this horse. Given he has already proved he enjoys the surface, I think connections will be expecting he can get the job done today. At a best price of 5/2 with Paddy Power – I am hoping he does just that.
The second selection comes in the big race at York, where I am not buying into the market being correct in this race at all. The 3.15 contest sees Mohaafeth top the market for Haggas and Crowley. However, even though this horse has been very impressive throughout the year – I can’t help but think he hasn’t been put under much pressure. It would have concerned me that he started jinking over the track at Royal Ascot when put to the sword last time out, and I have a feeling he may have similarly weak battling tendencies to his high profile stablemate, Al Aasy. I am never a fan of a horse that might be windy in a battle, so I have strayed away from the Even Money on the table.
Instead, Armory looks like the one in this Sky Bet York Stakes, as he brings the best level of form to the table and despite having to give the favourite weight for age allowances, I still think he may well come out on top. He dismantled Sangarius at Chester earlier this year before a good effort when third behind Love in the Prince of Wales Stakes. That race didn’t pan out how he would have wanted, as he benefits from a stronger pace to aim at. He looks a little bit more resilient in the finish and it would give me no bigger pleasure than to get a hyped up short price favourite beaten. At a best price of 7/4 with William Hill, I will be backing him to burst that bubble.
As it’s a Saturday and I feel slightly bad for putting up two shorter priced horses, I am going to take a bit of a risk and play a 1 Pt Win Double for the two horses as well. It’s not something I usually do, but worth a small try given the prices. Best of luck!