WhichBookie racing analyst Will Smith provides a preview and an ante-post each-way selection for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday 25th September.
|Outside World||12/1||half stake each-way
|Outside World||15/2||half stake each-way (without favourite Sandrine)
|Fame And Acclaim||16/1||each-way
Date of Tips: 18/08/2021
Disclaimer The odds for these selections were correct at the time of publishing (18:31 18/08/2021) but may have changed since. Please check the latest price before placing your bet.
A day of crossbars and non-runners on day one of York’s Ebor Festival, with 8/1 and 16/1 places keeping the ship floating for the week.
The day two card opens with the Group 2 Sky Bet Lowther Stakes at 1.50 over 6f, and the unbeaten Andrew Balding-trained favourite Sandrine will be mighty tough to beat. But I think we have a potential fly in the ointment for her here, in the shape of the course and distance novice winner Outside World.
She clocked a very good time for that win, and once again, on day one we saw the need to travel comfortably on or near the front end as being the perfect recipe for success on the Knavesmire.
Since 2012, Mark Johnston has form figures in this race of 2271. The winner in 2017, Threading, came here off the back just a maiden win to her name, while one of his runner-ups, Lumiere, had the same profile going into the race in 2015.
Clearly, he only goes to this particular race with a filly that is ripe, ready and good enough. Which makes the general 12/1 each-way quotes about Outside World very appealing. What is also appealing is the 15/2 each-way about Outside World in Bet365’s market ‘without favourite Sandrine’.
It’s a question of whatever floats your boat here really, in terms of extra places or other exotic markets. But I would suggest having a half stake each-way bet on Outside World at 12/1 generally in the race outright, and also half stake each-way on her at 15/2 in the ‘without Sandrine’ market with Bet365.
Moving on to the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Stakes at 2.25, and as usual this race features the good, the bad and the indifferent mob that usually frequent sales races. It can be form that is hard to get a handle on, but I’m hoping that Kevin Ryan can land the cash with his Smullen, who at 10/1 each-way with Paddy Power is nicely drawn to attack down the centre of the track in stall 11.
Yet to get off the mark in four attempts, he has been knocking on the door, and on the back of a huge run at Naas, and on better ground, Smullen can turn around that form with Ever Given.
I also can’t resist a slightly speculative 80/1 each-way bet with Sky Bet for 6 places, on Dandy Dinmont in the 2.25. He is 100/1 elsewhere, but at that price I’d be reluctant to give up that extra place given the wild price.
Rated just 70, he doesn’t have the mountain to climb that the ratings suggest on the evidence of his two runs since a mid-summer break. Drawn a little closer to the stands rail than ideal in stall 18, that is more than factored in to the 80/1 price.
The 3.00 is the valuable and competitive Clipper Logistics Handicap, and recent course and distance third Fame And Acclaim is too big at 16/1 with Betfair Sports for 6 places each-way. He has gone the right way in three starts for Les Eyre, and he can improve on his recent course run, in which he did much the best of those that chased a strong pace. He can go close granted just a little more reserve in the saddle on this occasion, though not too much, as it is York after all!
The final bet comes in the British EBF and Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes at 4.45, and it is recent Salisbury listed third Vesela, who at 18/1 each-way with Sky Bet, who offer a nice four places, that take the eye as a possible improver in the first-time cheekpieces.
Her last two starts were both over 1m2f, and was chopped off when just starting her run here at York on penultimate start, while she as staying on nicely at the finish at Salisbury behind the classy three-year-old fillies Lilac Road and Technique last time.
There is now way Vesela should be nearly the outsider of this field, and this daughter of Frankel can see out the 1m4f trip well, and at 18/1 with Sky Bet, is well worth a wager.