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2.00 Goodwood – Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) – 1m
I feel like this is the type of race that goes to a horse who had been sort of highly tried in Group company last season although plenty of the winners had come from lower class company to land this. The last couple of winners have been stable switchers making their debuts for the new yards and I just thought that CRIMSON ADVOCATE was incredibly interesting because she’s had the two runs for the Gosdens now, but her latest effort was after a layoff and was her first try up from 5 furlongs to a mile.
Soprano was a big drifter that day and probably didn’t need to run to her best to land that, but the only threat was CRIMSON ADVOCATE. She’s entitled to come on for that run now trying the trip for the second time, that run came after a break and it was her first ride under Rab Havlin. Even though she might not need to step too far forward, she’s likely to do so.
CRIMSON ADVOCATE – 2 STAR WIN @ 9/4
2.35 Thirsk – Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap – 1m
FLIGHT PLAN was highly tried last season and rightly so as he ended the previous campaign with a Group 2 win in Leopardstown. Peaked at 113 after that and now down to a mark of 102 for this belated handicap debut after a probable prep run last time out in a conditions stakes over 7 furlongs, at this track. That prep was under Sam James for the first time who goes up on him again.
Not a very prolific winners, with 2 wins from 16 starts, but his Group 2 win came at a mile and if there’s a group horse in this handicap, it’s him.
FLIGHT PLAN – 0.5 STAR EW @ 11/1 (4 Places 1/5)
2.55 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
Tidy looking race this and I thought No Half Measures under Ryan Moore again was interesting as he’s 2 from 2 on the horse with a win on Good Ground and a win on Heavy. That heavy ground win came at Newbury in a Group 3 where she was prominent and looked a good winner. I’m just not sold that this 5f is enough of a test for her and she’s now 4lbs worse off with DEMOCRACY DILEMMA who also ran in that Newbury race but the ground had gone well against him. He’s 1 from 1 under Tom Marquand which came on his first run on these shores last season, albeit he had run twice earlier that year in Dubai, and he’s a real typical sprint speedball so this track should suit.
His best win is just a Listed effort but that came last season which was his first for his new yard and there’s was enough about him on more than one occasion to suggest he could be capable of making into a Group 3 horse. I think he looks overpriced with 4 places up for grabs.
DEMOCRACY DILEMMA – 0.5 STAR EW @ 18/1 (4 Places 1/5)
3.35 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas (Group 1) – 1m
I’m drawn to SCORTHY CHAMP although he didn’t look the biggest as a 2yo but he was caught behind in the Irish Futurity stakes in a 4-runner race behind Henri Matisse but he reversed that form in the Group 1 National stakes after and Henri Matisse won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after at a mile and won on his first start this season too.
2 winners from 12 runners have come from the National Stakes to land this event this century and 40% of winners both this century and in the last decade came from the lowest three stalls. 2 other winners in the last decade came from the highest three stalls so that’s not a problem for both Field Of Gold and Ruling Court but I feel like there’s plenty of depth on the low side of the draw who can set this up for a horse like SCORTHY CHAMP and he might just be overpriced.
SCORTHY CHAMP – 0.5 STAR EW @ 8/1 (4 Places 1/5)
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