Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Only The Bold

2.43 Newcastle

½-star * EW 3 places 1/5

22/1

Kocktail Bleu

3.00 Kempton Park

½-star * EW 4 places 1/5

28/1

Lucky 15

View Tips

11/4

It sure is a different looking Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap Chase at 2.43 at Newcastle today than ever before. There is a field of just 10 runners on drying ground, with perhaps the prospect of topweight Mr Vango defecting also, which would make a mockery of a couple of current BHA rulings regarding weights and handicap marks. But I won’t get into that here…

Instead, I’m going to suggest a small ½-star * Daily Value selection on Only The Bold at 22/1 each-way with Paddy Power, as I can’t get my head round how he is such a big price with the prospect of the extreme 4m 1½f on drying ground sure to really suit.

Since joining Jamie Snowden, Only The Bold has not run a bad race and has simply looked a revitalised horse. He can be a tricky ride as over shorter, he has sometimes dropped himself out and given himself too much to do late on, but it could easily be that this extreme trip allows him to really find his niche. The form of all his recent starts reads well in the context of the class of rival he is taking on today, and there is simply no way he should be the complete outsider.

Another horse who is a completely unconsidered outsider in today’s Ladbrokes Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at 3.00 at Kempton Park is Chris Gordon’s Kocktail Bleu, who can be backed as a second ½-star * Daily Value bet today at 28/1 each-way with Boylesports or Betfred for 4 places.

Kocktail Bleu would be a much stronger fancy if he hadn’t run just 8 days ago on heavy ground at Kelso, not because I don’t like the form of that race (as it is actually sneakily very strong in my opinion) but more that today’s Grade 2 comes a little quick.

Had this race have been 2 weeks down the line, then you’d see me being much more bullish. But with the trainer happy to roll the dice over a course and distance where Kocktail Bleu actually has the best piece of form on offer, when he chased home lively Supreme outside Baron Noir, then I’m happy to recommend a small interest.

David Young Tips

Fortunate Man

2.43 NEwcastle

* Win

9/2

Three Card Brag

3.15 Fairyhouse

* Win

100/30

Kdeux Saint Fray

3.35 Kempton

* EW 4 places 1/5

4/1

Bad

4.05 Kempton

* Win

5/2

2.43 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase – 4m1½f

FORTUNATE MAN was well backed but disappointing when tipped in this column last time out but Sandown isn’t a course for every horse and I’m prepared to suggest that’s his excuse.

He’s been dropped 1lb for that run which I think is generous given his run prior suggest the 5lb rise he was given was generous and I can forgive any horse one bad run. The runner up from that Aintree run on his penultimate start won well on the same day FORTUNATE MAN flopped and is now 8lbs higher in the weights.

His run last season in the Windsor Stayers Handicap Chase cam off a 3lb lower than mark than he’s on here and he was out on his feet at the line over 5 furlongs less but this is a track that can suit his running style and the slower overall pace should allow him to stay the trip.

Richie Mclernon takes the ride as Jonjo Jnr can’t do the weight but he’s a jockey riding well with two wins on Friday and he has 6 wins from 29 rides over fences at Newcastle showing a 59% ROI displaying a clear knowledge of this track.

FORTUNATE MAN – 1 STAR WIN @ 9/2

3.15 Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) – 3m2f

Cracking renewal of this race and with Willie Mullins taking 9 of the last 10 renewals it’s a brave person to take on with 4 runners here, especially now the National weights have been revealed.

However, I’m going to take THREE CARD BRAG against the field here. He’s a course winner and a narrow loser to Corbetts Cross on his only other start here. He’s a recent winner which has been franked by the runner up from his penultimate start and his latest effort in placing second to Panic Attack in the Coral Gold Cup is another positive to be taken. He enjoys this slower ground too, so while this will require a career best effort, he’s in the form of his life and he’s been waited with until now and I expect him to be bang there.

THREE CARD BRAG – 1 STAR WIN @ 100/30

3.35 Kempton – Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase – 3m

I’d be very surprised if KDEUX SAINT FRAY ended this season on a mark in the 120’s. He ran well behind Guard The Moon on his third start of the season in Aintree with the winner now 11lbs higher in the weights. He was beaten by his stablemate in Cheltenham when last seen but he was the subject of support although a case could be made for the winner too. The runner up Quebecois ran well from the front end but I think this horse looks ripe for 3 miles and I’m sure he’s well handicapped on the form in the book and scope for improvement at this trip.

KDEUX SAINT FRAY – 1 STAR EW @ 4/1 (4 places 1/5)

4.05 Kempton – Handicap Chase – 2m4½f

Califet En Vol was in contention last time out when a mistake 2 out ended his race, but he had time after to show he had more under the bonnet and the handicapper dropping him 1lb looks like he saw what I did, a horse who didn’t lose the race because of his mistake. He’s loads of potential but doesn’t seem to be fulfilling it just yet and I wonder if he needs further.

BAD took this race 12 months ago but off a 19lbs lower mark. He wan well at Ascot last time out despite being dropped so far out he looked more likely to pull up than win. He certainly loves this track given he’s 3 from 3 here, including at the start of this season, albeit off a 6lbs lower mark. He’s potentially still handicapped to win races and the blinkers are left off again which seemed to allow him to do his thing last time out

BAD – 1 STAR WIN @ 5/2

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