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I’m not sure there’s another track in the country that could take 42mm of rain in the preceding 24-hour period, all the while completing 6 races during the worst of it and then be fit to race again the next day. They say Cheltenham is the best draining track around, and it’s proved it today by passing it’s 7.30am inspection for Paddy Power Gold Cup Day.
The main race itself is the only contest where I could see an angle or two, and so for today’s Daily Value selections for WhichBookie, they both come in the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase at 2.20 at Cheltenham.
Morning favourite Vincenzo will be as fit as a flea for Sam Thomas, perhaps the second-best target trainer currently operating. But to my mind, he is a leggy enough type who has been beaten on the two undulating tracks that he has encountered, Chepstow and Cheltenham, and when he ran 2nd behind Kalif Du Berlais here last season, he seemed to not find the same rhythm as he was able to at the likes of Newbury and Sandown.
Meanwhile, on form, the likes of Panic Attack, Coming Up Easy, Conyers Hill and plenty of those at bigger prices don’t make enough appeal for me. While Hoe Joly Smoke might not be advantaged by his run-style, and so the two that I keep coming back to as overpriced and well suited to today’s test are last year’s winner Il Ridoto and the ‘could-be-anything’ Hunter Legend.
Il Ridoto is a 2-star ** pick at 6/1 generally for 5 places, as he is so suited to Cheltenham, his second run of the season is always his best and he comes here off the back of possibly his best ever prep run of the last few seasons.
Il Ridoto was a ready winner last season in what was an infinitely better race than this year’s renewal, and for all that means he is set to carry a bigger weight, that means nothing when it is against rivals who he is simply not only better than, but also more perfectly suited to the track.
There is a train of thought that maybe a sounder surface suits him better, but I really don’t subscribe to that, as if you look back to this time of the year in his previous two seasons, when encountering soft ground, his speed figures are actually better. He must be the one they all have to beat.
Hunter Legend is also worth a smaller 1-star * option at 8/1 generally for 5 places, as when he was good last season, he was very very good and could just be coming to his prime now. Venetia Williams will have him 100%, he is nimble and athletic and could be suited to the track, has a forward-going run-style, and has a jockey to assist who is brilliant in these races.
1.45 – Cheltenham – Arkle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m
Cracking looking Novice Chase this one with July Flower heading the betting. Burdett Road is a good horse but I’m not sure he’s made to be a chaser whereas BE AWARE certainly is. He’s been a buzzy horse, the hood applied for chasing debut over further but he won well and stuck his neck out in fairness. His stamina will come into play here so at the prices I think I’d take my chance with him and his last chase debut RPR is 7lbs ahead of July Flower so they’ve achieved the same on chasing debut but the price is much different.
BE AWARE – 2 STAR WIN @ 2/1
2.20 – Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup – 2m4f
HUNTER LEGEND might just not have the typically required class for a race like this but is interesting as a likely progressive older horse for Venetia Williams.
He has 5 wins from 11 chase races with 3 further seconds to be added and loads of form in the mud. His form over about the middle distance reads 2F12111 and while this is a step up in class he’s won class 3’s and was favourite for a class 2 over a trip too far last spring.
HUNTER LEGEND – 1 STAR WIN @ 8/1
2.45 – Navan – Fortria Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
Slow ground around Navan can see DINOBLUE topple the reigning champion chaser Marine National as she receives 11lbs in this Grade 2. She runs well fresh with 3 wins (including her racecourse debut) and was second first time up last year when very wrong at the weights with Energumene.
Bar one blip in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, she’s placed Top 2 in each of her other 10 starts with at least soft in the description and she’s 3 from 5 over this trip with the other two positions both second again
DINOBLUE – 2 STAR WIN @ 3/1
3.30 – Cheltenham – Intermediate Handicap Hurdle – 3m
FRENCH SHIP was a good winner here last month for the column and probably prefers more ease in the ground. That means he’s well up there in terms of chances and he’s one of just three 130’s horses in this race. I don’t think the 8lb rise will be enough to stop his progression and I’m expecting a bold show despite this looking a very competitive race.
FRENCH SHIP – 1 STAR WIN @ 5/1
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Absolutely! In fact, you’ll often find our tipster Will Smith providing ante-post tips in the months leading up to the major festivals which can have a lot of value. Will has had great success at festivals such as Cheltenham and Royal Ascot by providing both winning ante-post and daily betting tips. Check out today’s Cheltenham tips for all selections from Will Smith & David Young.
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