Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Ikarak

1.20 Sandown Park

* EW 3 places 1/5

7/1

Gringo D'Aubrelle

1.42 Navan

* EW 5 places 1/5

9/1

Lucky 15

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6/4

Despite the drastic recent softening of the ground, which usually coincides with layers/punters being a little slow to adjust to those that prefer soft/heavy ground, there weren’t too many viable options for overpriced horses on this busy Saturday that I could see.

Gringo D’Aubrelle was certainly in that category though in the Bective Stud, Tea Rooms & Apartments Handicap Hurdle at Navan at 1.42 and I’m kicking myself for missing out on the widely available 20/1 last night.

Being slow on the uptake is never good in this game, but I’m still going to advise as a 1-star * Daily Value recommendation for WhichBookie as I’d personally be happy to back him down to around the 6/1 mark.

At 9/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places, Gringo D’Aubrelle showed real signs of retaining the ability last time, that saw him run really well in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle no less than 4 years ago. A break from the track of 3 years is almost unheard of, but gradually since that extended break, Gringo D’Aubrelle has taken baby steps back to a level that could see him win again.

Over 2m4f at Navan on seasonal debut, he was the only horse that was held up to get anywhere near contention late on, and in hitting the line nicely at that trip Gringo D’Aubrelle screamed out to me that 3m is what he needs. In a race sponsored by his owners on a big day at their local track, it’s notable that Gringo D’Aubrelle is their only representative and the crack claimer Michael Kenneally is booked.

At Sandown Park on Tingle Creek/Henry VIII day, those two big contests don’t make much betting appeal, but are sure to be fascinating contests.

Instead, the sole 1-star * Daily Value selection from Esher comes in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at 1.20 at Sandown Park, where non-runners have taken down the field to 7 annoyingly but with VirginBet, SkyBet and BetMGM still offering 3 places, (and many firms will offer similar concessions within their tabs on each race,) the 7/1 each-way with SkyBet about Ikarak makes a lot of appeal.

Olly Murphy has taken out Chasing Fire and so relies on Ikarak, and with Sean Bowen jumping on to him too, he can outrun his odds quite notably in ground that he will relish.

I wasn’t convinced Turndlightsdownlow would enjoy soft ground, while Kikijo and Lavender Hill Mob were perhaps flattered and advantaged by enterprising and smart rides when making the running wide on the hurdle track at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Supremely West wasn’t given a chance to run well behind Kikijo at Cheltenham by where he raced on the track and I’d say his campaign is now all about getting to the Final of this race with a few less pounds attached in the handicap.

So, all told, Ikarak looks overpriced at 7/1 each-way for 3 places and should be backed at those terms down to about 9/2 in my view.

David Young Tips

Knickerbockerglory

2.25 Sandown

Win

2/1

Il Etait Temps

3.00 Sandown

Win

5/6

Rambo T

3.15 Aintree

Win

4/1

Hung Jury

3.35 Sandown

Win

12/1

2.25 Sandown – Handicap Hurdle – 2m

KNICKERBOCKERGLORY was smashed up in the betting for this 12 months ago when a good winner off a 6lbs lower mark. Course form is solid and so is the record fresh so he has an obvious chance and any rain helps.

There are also question marks around other runners in this field with regard to trip and for plenty about their retained ability. So, even with KNICKERBOCKERGLORY having to defy a career high mark, he’s run into the 140’s on 3 of his last 4 starts and might just be able to show his best at a course he clearly loves.

KNICKERBOCKERGLORY – 1 STAR WIN @ 2/1

3.00 Sandown – Tingle Creek (Grade 1) – 1m7½f

First time cheek-pieces for Jonbon is probably not a huge positive based on Nicky Hendersons record in the last decade for first time cheekpieces being applied in a Grade 1. That initial 0 from 11 figure can be seen in a better light when you consider ALL of these were applied and tried at towards the end of a season, from Cheltenham onwards. Only one of the horses was a favourite which was Altior in a Celebration chase who finished second, and only Santini before that was a single figure priced runner too, he was beaten a neck into second in a Gold Cup. 7 of the other 9 were priced 16/1 or bigger with an expected number of winners sitting at 0.90 so we’re not due a winner based on SP indicated probability. All of this makes for rough reading to apply confidence into Jonbon, but it’s hard to get away from his price looking generous on older form.

IL ETAIT TEMPS though was very good here last April when beating Jonbon but also slamming Energumene into third too. That win came off the back of a 359 day absence and he backed that up in the Clonmel Oil this season with a similar RPR. His last 4 starts following a break of 190 or more days having been wins but given his last two have not seen him run inside that window since it’s a bit tricky to take anything from this other than, in all previous seasons he’s yet to win second time up. In fairness to him for his Arkle effort back in 2024 he ran well following some hefty mistakes. A line through that is easy to draw which means his only other chasing defeat came when behing Gaelic Warrior over the middle trip on heavy ground, a day etched in our memory for Patrick Mullin’s response after the line in giving Danny Mullins a talking to after trying to go up his inside (right) at the penultimate fence.

I think he’s the new kid on the block as a two-mile chaser in open company and with Paul Townend electing to come over that should read through as a massive positive given there’s some nice races on in Navan too.

IL ETAIT TEMPS – 2 STAR WIN @ 5/6

3.15 Aintree – Handicap Hurdle – 2m4f

RAMBO T beat Paggane who has come out since over fences and kept winning. James Bowen rides instead of his brother Sean Bowen which might be saying something given he’s 2 from 4 in handicap hurdles for the yard after his brother has seemingly given him the nod with an A/E of 2.74. This will be a career high mark which tempers enthusiasm but I think he has his chance all the same.

The trainer saddles three in here with Act Of Authority looking the best of his other duo having a solid line of form from last season at Cheltenham at about this trip but was tried after as a stayer.

RAMBO T – 1 STAR WIN @ 4/1

3.35 Sandown – London National Handicap Chase – 3m4½f

Just the 7 runners in this years’ renewal and it’s a race I’m aware Paul Nicholls does quite well in with runners but he doesn’t have one. Harry Cobden is free to ride Ask Brewster for Evan Williams who himself has a solid record with one winner from 3 runners. He’s a horse with bits of form on all ground, but some of that form isn’t the best on slower surfaces and his win last time out came on good to firm. Still, he’s a 6yo going places in these staying handicaps you feel and last time out winners are profitable to back blind since this race has been run with 5 wins from 31 runners for a 25% ROI.

That also brings in Invincible Neo who has unfinished business in these contests too after pulling up last march when never at the races in the Midlands National. HUNG JURY would be another last time out winner and coupled with being a 10yo who are also profitable to back blind with 4 wins from 28 runners for a 35% ROI.

11 of the 20 winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago and the next biggest win bucket is horses having their first run of the season, then next best is those 8-15 days ago. That whittles the field down a bit. Backing all runners sent off between 13/2 and 12/1 show a near 100% ROI so the horse that’s ticking the boxes for me here is HUNG JURY (let’s hope he stays in the price window) who I think might be worth a play with a smaller stake

HUNG JURY – 0.5 STAR WIN @ 12/1

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