Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Ice Max

2.40 Epsom

** EW 3 places 1/4

11/2

Spoken Truth

3.15 Epsom

* EW 5 places 1/5

16/1

Lucky 15

View Tips

5/1

Heavy showers currently on Thursday afternoon at Epsom will probably turn the ground generally ‘soft’ by the end of today, but with a drying day tomorrow then I’d imagine it will be back to around about ‘good to soft’.

That will be spot on for what I hope will be the best bet of the weekend in Friday’s Betfred Diomed Stakes at 2.40 at Epsom, in the shape of the 2-star ** recommendation at 11/2 each-way with William Hill and Bet365 on last year’s runner-up Ice Max.

He was chinned 12 months ago by the re-opposing favourite Persica, but tactically that race didn’t pan out nicely for Ice Max, who was locked away on the inside and keen enough, only to then burst to the front and leave himself vulnerable late on. Plus, it will be softer ground that he’ll encounter this time around, and that will really suit.

So too will the likely pace set-up, as there seem to a few who will want to push forward, and from stall 6 it should hopefully allow Ice Max to sit in behind, travel as smoothly as he can do, and then see the race out stronger than others over his optimum trip.

In the Betfred ‘Nifty50’ Handicap at 3.15 at Epsom, a renewal that looks plenty class enough but might not be as deep as the numbers suggest, there is a lively player who has just squeezed into the race at the bottom of the weights.

At 16/1 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places, Spoken Truth is a 1-star * bet and looked a potential top-notcher when starting out with Dermot Weld, and in true David O’Meara/Horse Watchers-style he looks likely to be a real money-spinner for new connections.

In three starts at Doncaster, Ripon and Redcar, Spoken Truth has not had a smooth and clear passage or advantageous pace/positional set-up yet, and for all that Epsom has all the hallmarks of a luckless tale yet again, at 16/1 it’s definitely worth a swing at the board with a horse who will win a big race or two this season.

David Young Tips

Coyy

1.30 Epsom

EW 5 places 1/5

10/1

Venetian Lace

4.00 Epsom

EW 3 places 1/5

11/1

Dance In The Storm

5.50 Epsom

Win

9/4

1.30 Epsom – 3yo Handicap – 5f

This isn’t going to be the easiest race to find a winner in over the 2 day Derby meeting but I’m more than happy to give the benefit of the doubt to COYY who is drawn in the middle and is a notorious slow starter which isn’t going to be ideal in a race of this nature.

However he’s shown more than enough in his last two races to suggest a mark of 73 is workable and there is going to be more to come when things go his way in a race and he’s worth an ew play with a view that not many horses will be finishing faster than him.

COYY – 0.5 STAR EW @ 10/1 (5 places 1/5)

 

4.00 Epsom – Oaks (Group 1) – 1m4f

With no Precise in this contest the reality on Official Ratings is that VENETIAN LACE is the highest rated runner which hasn’t been typically the way to find your Oaks winner but there enough about her to suggest she can buck that trend or at least run well at a big price.

She’s a daughter of Derby winner Masar and her Dam Nash Nasha was a 10 furlong winner who handled some ease in the ground. Charlie Johnston was impressed by her 1,000 Guineas performance after suggesting on multiple occasions that this was an Oaks trial for her and this has absolutely been the plan since her 2-year-old days.

William Buick has only ridden her once and it was her lowest placed finish on ground described as Good To Soft but the trainer believed it to be much slower. That is a concern going into this with the rain we’ve had but it’s hopefully no worse than good to soft for this and I don’t want to be put off her solely on the ground, despite the obvious concern.

VENETIAN LACE – 0.5 STAR EW @ 11/1 (3 places 1/5)

 

5.50 Epsom – Handicap – 7f

DANCE IN THE STORM was a winner for the column earlier this month and the 6lbs rise could be lenient given the effort that it took from racing keen and from a wide draw to actually get the job done.

She has form on Good to Soft ground behind Mudbir when unlucky in running and while some of the appeal last time out was that it was her first run after a break, that good run on this type of ground came off a similar length break from her previous start when a disappointing favourite.

She’s yet to reach her ceiling and has previously shown her flaws during her races, but her 4yo debut run looked like she’s probably learned to concentrate despite showing signs of keenness because she was so strong through the line and I expect the same here in this.

DANCE IN THE STORM – 2 STAR WIN @ 9/4

 

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