Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Naga

3.10 Carlisle

* EW 3 places 1/5

16/1

Naga

3.10 Carlisle ' -without Estrange'

** Win

13/2

Lucky 15

View Tips

2/1

The switch of the Betway Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes at 3.10 at Carlisle to that track from Haydock Park has changed the complexion of the race somewhat, as it’s gone from a 1m4f trip around a flat left-handed track to 1m3f at a more undulating right-handed course.

It probably won’t matter a jot to the classy Estrange, who won the race handsomely last year before going on to finish 2^nd in two Group 1’s later that season. She should be too good, but there is an overpriced each-way option in the race were Estrange to fluff her lines and/or find the track not to her liking.

The 16/1 each-way with Bet365 or William Hill about John & Thady Gosden’s Naga is a 1-star * Daily Value bet worth taking a small play at, but perhaps more specifically the 13/2 with Bet365 or William Hill in their ‘without Estrange’ market is a more tempting 2-star ** option.

There are only 8 runners in the contest as a whole, so while I’d love to be backing Naga ‘without Estrange’ for 3 places each-way, that is not possible, hence the ‘win only’ bet in that market.

Naga is only rated 86 and is the second lowest rated horse in the field, but as stated on these pages countless times, official ratings can be really misleading when it comes to Listed or Group 3 contests, as quite often horses stepping into this company for the first time without too much exposure to handicaps can outrun their odds and defy lowly ratings.

Naga looks to have really ‘clicked’ this season with an impressive win at Doncaster and then a massively eye-catching run at Ascot where she had too much to do off a very slow pace but flew home for 3^rd.

In terms of track, trip or ground aspects, all the other runners have doubts on one or more of these fronts, whereas Naga looks to have everything in her favour.

David Young Tips

Rogue Millions

1.30 Carlisle

EW (4 places 1/5)

15/2

Mafting

1.45 Beverley

Win

9/2

Realign

2.00 Carlisle

Win

9/2

Starlust

2.33 Carlisle

Win

3/1

Arapaho Gold

2.48 Beverley

EW (3 places 1/5)

4/1

Palmer Bay

3.30 Chester

EW (4 places 1/5)

9/2

Crest Of Fire

3.45 Carlisle

Win

100/30

1.30 Carlisle – Handicap – 1m3f

ROGUE MILLIONS was the first horse to jump out at me here because he’s lightly raced but already has good form at this trip.

He was tried at Listed level after winning over course and distance but was last of 7 although beaten less than 2 lengths and then went out in trip at Ascot where he ran too free and although he’d won on soft, it was a new test on slower ground. He’s other win came on Good Ground and I see no reason why he wouldn’t handle this quicker surface too.

He’s been gelded since then and changed to Ed Bethell’s yard who does well with stable switchers showing a 37% ROI and 14 winners from 44 runners.

ROGUE MILLIONS – 0.5 EW @ 15/2 (4 places 1/5)

1.45 Beverley – Handicap – 1m2f

Just the 6 runners declared in here so I’d be hopeful there would be no hard luck stories given they have 10 furlongs to sort themselves out but I’m fairly sweet on the chance of MAFTING running a big race here given he’s fine if not his best on this quicker ground which isn’t true of many in this race. He’s also only one of three without headgear, one of two with a win at this trip (both his wins have come at 10 furlongs and on good to firm ground) and he’s the only winner this season.

Now bolstering his claims with those two careers wins coming on this ground and at this trip they both did come at Redcar, but his two attempts at this track and trip have produced a second place finish on debut behind the now 102 rated Spinning Wheel and a close up 4^th when only a 3-year-old taking on 6 elders.

Lovely make-up I this contest for him as a horse who can make the pace and has a few in here who will want to be behind and a couple who might be happy to lay up with the pace, but he’ll happily take a tow into this if there is one and with Ben Robinson taking the ride for the first time we can use that as another positive given both this horses careers wins have come under a different jockey than who rode him the time prior

MAFTING – 1 STAR WIN @ 9/2

2.00 Carlisle – Handicap – 6f

REALIGN was a disappointing favourite at Royal Ascot last year but while he’s gone off the boil somewhat and the Cheek-Pieces have been reached for, I’m sure he has the potential to be much better than 92 which he showed to some degree when winning at Haydock last September following a gelding operation.

I think he’s as risky as anything in this contest, but the potential upside to him being probably one of the better handicapped runners who has a something about him to suggest he can change his fortune with the cheek-pieces being applied, coupled with James Doyle in partnership means there’s enough for me to think he’s the one to side with in a trappy enough affair that might not look that way if REALIGN shows his true self

REALIGN – 1 STAR WIN @ 9/2

2.33 Carlisle – Achilles Stakes (Listed) – 5f

Historically a higher draw over 5 furlongs at Carlisle will perform to expectations and looking at the three highest drawn they will over perform but are not profitable to SP but are to BSP.

With 8 runners in this contest I looked at the inside and outside trio figures, 15 winners from lowest trio over furlongs events with 8 or fewer runners and 25 winners from the highest trio. It’s 14 and 19 respectively looking at fields of 6-8 runners so it’s not overly biased.

I found this a bit of a muddling race to dechiper with plenty having form above listed level but possible doubts about their conviction and some who are improvers who have earnt the shot in this company, but should be close to some of their rivals if they run near their best.

I think all in all it feels like STARLUST sums this race up entirely considering he’s a Breeders Cup winner currently not favourite for this listed contest. Last seen in the King Charles Stakes where he ran a blinder but clearly wasn’t right after. Prior to that after a short winter break had prepped in the Group 2 Temple stakes but has opted to start here instead, and with those races being just a week apart, I’d imagine this would be intentional to put the horse in a Race where he has a chance of getting his prep run in but also his head back in front.

Since entering Group company back in 2023 he’s raced just twice below that level and since May 2024 he’s only raced twice below Group 2 level, and he won both those races.

They did come with the benefit of a run, he’s never won off a break, and clearly he has bigger sights in mind, but while his Official rating has dropped from 115 to 111, I don’t think that truly representative of the reality of this horses ability because I see his as half a stone or more better than anything in this field and he’s the one I’d want to side with regardless of the fact he’ll come on from this effort

STARLUST – 1 STAR WIN @ 3/1

2.48 Beverley – Conditions Stakes – 5f

Good race this by the looks of the entries and plenty to like about plenty in here but I was certainly impressed by ARAPAHO GOLD’s debut at Thirsk which came on good to firm ground and over 5 furlongs.

Shaped as though the further they went the better, and possibly he’ll be taking on quicker types here and will need a bit of luck, however, he beat Kodiak Breeze into second who won next time out stepping up to 6f who we might see later in the season in the Goffs Half million. He beat odds-on Tamam Star who was a huge eyecatcher in his first race showing plenty of ability and he was well beaten here. The 4^th was behind Kodi Bear Light in her next run who is vying for favouritism in the Hilary Needler earlier on this card and so not only was it visually an impressive win, I think the form of those in behind stack up well too.

ARAPAHO GOLD – 1 STAR EW @ 4/1 (3 places 1/5)

3.30 Chester – Handicap – 7f

Roman Dragon is a Chester specialist but he won over 5 furlongs last time out. That said, his career record at 7 or 7.5f reads: 4623685 so hat’s more than enough reason to take him on here.

Supido maybe sits on the other side that this drop back from 7.5 to 7 isn’t certain to suit but his 3 careers wins have come at 7, 8 and 7.5 and he clearly enjoys it here two with a decent big priced 4^th place finish on debut for this yard at Chester before a huge run at 100/1 in Royal Ascot when 5^th of 30.

PALMER BAY drops back into Handicap company for the first time since Glorious Goodwood where in his race prior over course and distance he dotted up, albeit off a 12lb lower mark, but on quick ground and he handles ease underfoot much better I think. I thought his run behind Lake Forest was a solid enough one and that was his 3^rd consecutive 4^th placed finished in listed company where he’s run numbers above what he did here at Chester, but at the time of the Chester win it was a career best effort by some way and I’m hopeful a return to this track and handicap company can be enough to see him getting his head back in front with Hector Crouch back atop who is 1 from 1 on this horse.

PALMER BAY – 0.5 STAR EW @ 9/2 (4 places 1/5)

3.45 Carlisle – Silver Bowl Hanidicap – 1m

and I’m excited to see the belated return of CREST OF FIRE to handicap company, especially in search of a big pot such at this.

His best form is probably his reappearance run back in March where he posted a career high RPR of 91 when slamming 10 rivals at Southwell putting a wide margin between himself and the runner up. The form has taken some boosts with the 4^th winning since and others in behind running well in defeat.

Arguably though his handicap debut at the end of his 2-year-old campaign reads more impressively given that he was off levels with McMurray, beaten just a neck but the winner has won twice since and is now rated 94. The 4^th is higher rated now, the 6^th is higher rated now and this horse looks progressive and is likely to land a big prize of his current mark of just 86.

There’s form from his early 2-year-old career too that reads well behind the likes of 114 rated Hankelow and 112 rated Humidity.

A race like this will be targeted by plenty of yards so he’s by no means a banker and he’s shorter than 7 days ago after being well supported but I still want to side with him as he’s proven that he can handle this type of ground on that handicap debut prior to being gelded.

CREST OF FIRE – 2 STAR WIN @ 100/30

Ante-Post Tips