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The 2-star ** midweek ante-post recommendation for today’s Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at 2.05 at Haydock Park is now clear favourite, and as explained, that is about right in my eyes.
Alongside the uber-impressive Greatwood Hurdle winner Alexei in the Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle at 3.35 at Ascot and Jeremy Scott’s potential improver Came From Nowhere (now upped in trip) in the bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap Hurdle at 2.48 at Hereford, put in Grand Geste also in today’s 1-star * Each-Way Lucky15 for WhichBookie.
In relation to Alexei in the valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot, he looks a live outsider for an open Champion Hurdle division and wouldn’t put anyone off the 25/1 with Bet365 for the feature on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival.
I respect the ability Mondo Man has, but this is a different ball-game completely and yesterday’s action on the hurdle track at Ascot suggested that being prominent was a distinct advantage, and one or two scruffy leaps could mean this classy flat-bred finds himself with a mountain to climb against some of the slickest 2m handicap hurdlers around.
Helnwein and last year’s winner Fiercely Proud will run very well, but it’s hard to see them beating Alexei, given how impressive he has been the last twice.
The final leg of today’s Lucky15 and the other significantly overpriced horse on the day, is a 1-star * Daily Value recommendation for the 10/1 each-way with Ladbrokes or Coral about Followango in the winningpost.co.uk Play Champion Tipster Mares’ Handicap Chase at 2.13 at Hereford.
A long list of 2’s, 3’s and 4’s next to her name suggests Followango finds winning tough since her demolition job on stable and bumper debut two seasons ago, but her career path and her trainer’s placement of her has had a strong suggestion of building towards something.
Given today’s race is by far the most valuable she has contested, and over the same course and distance that she faced when given a lovely spin around on penultimate start, Evan and Isobel Williams have surely been getting Followango ready for a tilt at the £18k to today’s winning mare.
2.05 Haydock – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase – 3m1½f
Nice race in place since 2005 with all winners aged 6-8 and the latter’s being profitable blind £32 from 54 runners. Another profitable line is horses who finished exactly 5th last time showing £37 from 14 qualifiers but most winners placed top 5 at least and it’s profitable to back horses who last ran 8-15 days ago, 100% ROI from 28 runners. Second favourites are profitable to back blind and have the most winners of any market position. Most winners had their furthest win at 3miles too.
No runners inside two weeks but Latenightrumble ticks most of the boxes as 5th last time out and aged 8. Might be outclassed in this as has been the case the last twice. 3lbs out the handicap but the claimer makes that balanced. Could go well if able to stay in contention here.
I liked O’Toole last time out who should be ok in the handicap up 7lbs from his Irish mark after bumping into one last time out. Beat the rest well and Sam Ewing happy to come over for this ride. He goes well fresh and has failed to back it up so much next time out but did run well in 2023 off a break in a Grade 2 and should stay this trip.
I’m happy to play the pair in here.
O’TOOLE – 1 STAR WIN @ 8/1
LATENIGHTRUMBLE – 0.5 STAR EW @ 18/1 (4 places 1/5)
2.25 Ascot – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) – 3m½f
Two JP runners at the front of the market which either suggests a stranglehold on the race or tempered enthusiasm about each of them. Strong Leader is a horse who has shown he doesn’t like undulating tracks after being bitterly disappointing when I tipped him in this 12 months ago. Rain doesn’t make him any more attractive so he’s more like a place lay than any kind of play here.
Given this is a Grade 1 with no mares it’s a straight ranking on Official Ratings with just 11lbs between the entire field but most winners hold an OR of 151 or higher. Most winners had run this season too and many that had run here had won here too.
Crambo is to be respect as is Impose Toi and I can’t imagine Mark Walsh is over just for a day out on Honesty Policy who is one of my horses to follow this season and his only ride of the day. His OR of 148 though and being favourite for a Grade 1 would scream out to be exploitable in something like a Pertemps or any big money handicap, but they’ve opted to roll the dice here and fair play.
Jet Blue is a lively outsider in my opinion. Runs well this time of year and this test looks sure to suit, does have something to find on bare form though.
However, I think IMPOSE TOI should be favourite and I think if there were firms offering 4 places that Crambo is probably a solid EW bet. As most aren’t though, I’ll stick with IMPOSE TOI to continue his progression in a field where a repeat of last time out will win this but I fully respect and rate Honesty Policy so I’d respect this market as we near the off.
IMPOSE TOI – 1 STAR WIN @ 100/30
2.40 Haydock – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed) – 2m3f
Hard to see how Supreme Malinas doesn’t confirm the form with A Path To Rhonda and Jackie Hobbs should improve for going out in trip and be OK on this ground.
Not much attraction at their respective prices though paying a shade of odds-on if coupling the pair and I’d much rather having the field running form me than against me.
If I have to pitch myself down to just one selection though who looks certainly overpriced, it’s AMELIA’S STAR for David Killahena and Graeme McPherson. I think she was beaten by a slightly faster horse at Huntingdon last time out but she stuck to the task well and pulled well clear of the remainder. She was also in front of Jackie Hobbs in the Grade 2 Aintree bumper after again showing resilience to stay strong through the line after showing signs of finding things hard and I’ve no doubt that she’ll improve now racing out of bumpers and can at least run into the frame here. 28/1 top price with 3 places up for grabs but bet365 do offer extended places, for which she’s 12/1 5 places. That looks very attractive to me. I’d be tempted to play those types of bets at 60% of my total stake with 5 places to cover my total stake if 5th, then play 20% 4 places and another 20% at normal EW prices and terms.
AMELIA’S STAR – 0.5 STAR EW @ 25/1 (3 places 1/5)
3.00 Ascot – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase – 3m
Transmission might be a leap of faith, but Sean Bowen being jocked up is a big bonus and he’s remember this horse after Haiti Coulers got the better of him him in receipt of 8lbs. He was running out of the handicap last time out so runs here off a reduced 9lbs. There’s a chance he can recapture some old form which isn’t that old and confirm that he’s much better than this current mark. He won off 129 last and while this is against better horses and his style could see him out with the washing, he’ll be staying on up this long run in and I would think he could have more behind than in front at the finish and there are 4 places up for grabs. He also smacks of a quirky type given his lazy style so the change of scenery that has seen him run well in most cases at a new venue where he’s run well first time up, he has won next time with both Plumpton and Cheltenham as examples
TRANSMISSION – 0.5 STAR EW @ 10/1 (4 places 1/5)
3.35 Ascot – Festive Handicap Hurdle – 1m7½f
We have plenty of course form on offer although Wilful for the O’Neills doesn’t, but might just be very well handicapped based on his Welsh Champion Hurdle effort behind Celtic Dino and Alexei. He was 4 lengths off the winner that day and a length a half off Alexei with that trio all having their first starts of the season. Celtic Dino has since run second in a Grade 2 here behind Wodhooh and Alexei of course won here and then the greatwood at Cheltenham. Wilful is 1lb higher than Chepstow, Celtic Dino is 10lbs and Alexie is 20lbs!
Wilful also has his best form on Slower ground. A win on heavy going, two seconds on Soft including a bumper half a length behind the now 147 rated Wendigo. He has a second in a listed bumper at Punchestown on Yielding but a slight concern is how right he jumped at Huntingdon back in March 2024 with a similar stands side rail like Ascot. You’d get away with it in Punchestown but Jonjo Jnr is going to have to get to this near side rail and get some cover on his outside.
I’m happy all things considered though to play him, but with a slight tempering given the small recent blackout from his yard.
WILFUL – 1 STAR WIN @ 9/2
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