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There seems to be no doubt in the weather forecast for Cheltenham on Friday – heavy rain starting in the early hours of the morning and continuing through racing, right up until the chimes of midnight into Saturday.
The ground will begin ‘soft’ you’d imagine and tend towards ‘heavy’ as the meeting progresses. It will sort out those who handle ground like that and race fitness, or a combination of both.
With that in mind, I’m happy to go up with Friday’s 1-star * Daily Value recommendations for the opening day of Cheltenham’s Open meeting on Thursday morning, given the seemingly assured nature of the ground.
In the opening Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at 1.10 at Cheltenham, I love the booking of Freddie Keighley on Philip Hobbs and Johnson White’s potential improver Kap Vert.
At 15/2 each-way with Bet365 for 5 places, and advisable at anything 5/1+, Kap Vert reappeared this season with a lovely run at Fontwell Park, when perhaps 100% race fitness and conceding track position to his rival in the closing stages just told.
It was an excellent comeback that screamed of improvement to come and given Kap Vert’s best novice hurdle form came on testing ground last season at the likes of Exeter and Sandown Park against quality rivals, conditions will hold no fears at all. Plus, as mentioned, Freddie Keighley is a young jockey alive to how to ride the hurdle track at Cheltenham and the vagaries of when and why to race wide.
Closing the card is the Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at 4.00 at Cheltenham, and by this time conditions will be pretty brutal and so having a jockey like Harry Cobden on your side, who will presumably hug the outer rail the whole way round, could be absolutely imperative.
That you factor in he is 5-18 when riding for Evan Williams, including a winner at Lingfield in the week, then it’s surely notable the Welsh handler has booked him for Shade Of Winter, who could be extremely well handicapped on his novice hurdle form at Chepstow last season and is starting out in the 0-125 bracket, which will surely be well below the ceiling of his ability.
At 8/1 each-way with Bet365, Shade Of Winter is also advisable at anything 5/1+ to hopefully top and tail a wet, wild and windy day at Prestbury Park.
In addition, there is also a 1-star * Daily Value selection to be had in the Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap Chase at 1.55 at Newcastle in the form of the 14/1 each-way with Bet365 or William Hill about Micky Hammond’s Halpha Soleil.
Halpha Soleil is the first horse to run out of a novice handicap chase at Carlisle 12 days ago that I think will work out extremely well. He mixed it with some potential 130+ rated improving young chasers, and despite still being a maiden over fences, he has only been beaten less than 1¼ lengths on three occasions last season.
With the cheekpieces back on, rain softened ground beneficial and the fact that on the occasions he has returned to track within 15 days or less giving form figures of 114522, clearly there are reasons to believe he should be nothing like the outsider of the field at 14/1.
1.45 – Veterans Chase – 2m4f
It’s hard to not look at FUGITIF as the standout contender in this contest given his course form and scope now in Veterans company.
He dropped 7lbs from the start of last season and ended the season before pulling up twice but that was followed by wind surgery and he picked up the December Gold Cup that particular season at Cheltenham and in beating Il Ridoto.
He’s won fresh before now and he’s also got lots of form on Soft ground so everything points to this particular test being made for him.
FUGITIF – 1 STAR WIN @ 3/1
2.20 – Novices’ Chase (Listed) – 3m1f
On official ratings you’d be hard pressed to see beyond Leave Of Absence, however his form is on better ground and he was raised 14lbs for his latest win, so might not quite be as clear of the field as his OR suggests.
Wade Out is another runner who was hiked after a win last time out, up 10lbs for a head victory, but that maybe looks a bit more fair.
One Big Bang and Isaac Des Obeaux haven’t been seen this season but DOUBLE POWERFUL has been and it was a decent effort here last month in a Novices’ Handicap Chase over the middle trip. He’s a course winner from last season over 2m5f and he has form on desperate ground as well as good ground. He wasn’t beaten far in Aintree over this sort of trip and he was staying on late that day. The winner, Deep Cave has franked the form this week with a win, and while this isn’t a handicap, he looks well treated off 136 and doesn’t have anything to find with Leave Of Absence on adjusted ratings based on their latest RPR’s.
DOUBLE POWERFUL – 1 STAR WIN @ 4/1
2.55 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) – 2m
JONBON might be slowing down in his advancing years but he’s only 9 turning 10 but he’s won this the last two years. Jumping is the name of the game, and round here he’s come unstuck on multiple occasions which is why I think the 4/5 is about for him but surely he’s the one they all have to beat and it’s only his downfall that can allow any rivals to benefit.
He’s the right favourite and probable testing ground will only make this more of a stamina test and less about the jumping. I couldn’t take him on, even though the gut feel is you probably should around here and over fences, especially while he’s the price that he is when I think he warrants being a much shorter price.
JONBON – 2 STAR WIN @ 4/5
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