Horse Racing Betting Tips Today

Will Smith Tips

Lucky 15

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10/3

David Young Tips

Dickensian

1.02 Newbury

EW 4 places 1/5

11/1

Cut A Dash

2.12 Newbury

EW 3 places 1/5

20/1

Almekarem

2.47 Newbury

EW 4 places 1/5

5/1

1.02 Newbury – World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) – 5f

5 of the last 6 winners and all of the last 4 winners were 3-year-olds and while we’ve had no winner bigger than 12/1 since 2007 it’s been 8 years since the last winning favourite

Aspect Island and Dickensian would be the obvious starting place given what I’ve just mentioned and the pair were only split by ¾ of a length back in May in the Listed Westow Stakes. The form was reversed in the City Walls Stakes back at York in July with Redorange the winner, Starlust a beaten favourite in 4^th and Aspect Island only a neck second that say.

On that effort I think DICKENSIAN is the horse to take from the race given he was last, he wasn’t able to hit full stride having a wall of horses in front of him and despite having to weight to be asked he was finishing as fast as anything else but that race had already begun.

He was stepped up to 6f last time out following a wind op when 3^rd of 9 again in a listed contest at York but he was keen enough in last place and had a great run through in the finish and arguably if he’d have got going a bit sooner he might have been able to do better than 3^rd.

That was on good to soft ground so any rain fall won’t hind his chance and while Starlust is undoubtedly the one to beat on all known form and his recent second to Bacio, I think I’d prefer an each way play on DICKENSIAN with 3 places up for grabs

DICKENSIAN – 0.5 STAR EW @ 11/1 (4 places 1/5)

 

2.12 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) – 6f

Tough to look beyond the favourite Arapaho Gold here who won over course and distance beating Nabati by a neck but it was a comfortable win in the end but there is a 3lb swing between that pair.

I wondered if it might be worth taking an EW chance on CUT A DASH at the prices and his trainer Richard Hannon has been very complimentary of him and his chance this morning.

Typically this race goes to a shorter priced runner and I don’t recall a winner of the race having carried a penalty to victory since 2011 but I also don’t think many had tried.

Back to CUT A DASH, who hasn’t quite progressed as expected since his Coventry stakes 4^th in Royal Ascot, but putting a line through Goodwood which can catch horses out and forgiving his finishing effort over 7f last time out behind an odds-on favourite who has won two group races since I think under Jamie Spencer he can travel well into the race and hope to pick up some place money in the finish with only a few pounds between him and all those priced much shorter in the market.

CUT A DASH – 0.5 STAR EW @ 20/1 (3 places 1/5)

 

2.47 Newbury – Handicap – 1m2f

I’m not convinced about Boyfriend at this trip however I’m completely sold on ALMEKAREM who has 4 runs at 10-furlongs this year since being gelded with form figures of 1221. He’s posted RPR’s of 84, 85, 85 and 91 with his mark climbing from 74, 78 to 80 the last twice and he’s now up a further 5lbs here.

That form is in Class 4 and 5 events so this is a big step into Class 2 company, but Sir Mark Prescott is in good form, he’s only sent 10 horses into Newbury Handicaps since 2023 with 5 of those winning and an A/E of 1.5. While that’s easy to take as a positive, all of the winners were sent off favourite and 4 were 13/8 or shorter. The other 5 runners who were NOT the favourite were all beaten and none even placed.

Still, I think I’m happy to take the chance on his runner and any market support putting him at the head of the betting will be welcomed to keep that 100% strike rate of Sir Mark Prescott Handicap favourites at Newbury alive since 2023 (although I’m aware at the time of writing he’s currently second favourite)

ALMEKAREM – 1 STAR EW @ 5/1 (4 places 1/5)

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On this page, you’ll find top racing tips from our expert horse racing analyst Will Smith,  as well as selections from some of the leading national newspaper tipsters.

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